Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 230703
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
303 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...DENSE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT SKIRTED THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO LINGER
BENEATH THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE. THIS CLOUD SHIELD HAS ACTUALLY EXPANDED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN
THOSE AREAS...COMPLETELY DIMINISHING THE FROST THREAT. THUS...HAVE
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES WHERE CLEAR CONDITIONS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A 925 MB RH ANALYSIS INDICATES THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY BREAKING UP BY MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEATING REALLY KICKS IN. WITH AN UPPER-RIDGE
AXIS MOVING IN AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...HIGHS IN THE 60S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL
AUTUMN AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATER
TONIGHT...BUT HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...MAKING ANY FROST THREAT LOCALIZED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THUS...WILL HOLD
OF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGING GENERALLY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...THEN
SOME TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WHICH LEADS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE RIDGING DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW SOME SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES
AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS. GFSX AND ECMX MOS POPS TRENDING
UPWARD FOR DAY 7 (WEDNESDAY) SO I NUDGED POPS UP AMD INTRODUCED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS OUR GRIDS IN LINE
WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES.

THE SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN GFSX MOS TEMPS FROM 12Z TO 00Z RUNS ARE
KINDA PUZZLING. HOWEVER...I DID MAKE SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND
MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND RIDGING. JUST MINOR TWEAKS
OVERALL AS THE MONTH OF OCTOBER CLOSES OUT IN THE MORE TYPICAL DRY
FASHION. ENJOY THE STRETCH OF GREAT FALL WEATHER DAYS...AND LESS
CHILLY NIGHTS AS MIN TEMPS MODERATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  43  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  35  66  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/TG



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