Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 191433
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1033 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH JET STRUCTURE PLACING THE
REGION UNDER FAVORED DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST
TENNESSEE...CURRENTLY NEAR ATHENS...TENNESSEE. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ALABAMA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO 1000
J/KG WITH GOOD SHEAR 0-1KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND SRH OVER 250
M2/S2. CONCERNED FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF THE
PLATEAU...THEN MOVING INTO THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE VALLEY.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER...PWS ARE UNSEASONABLY HIGH.
SOME TRAINING OF CELLS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AND FLASH FLOODING.

MAIN SOME MINOR CHANGES TO HIGHS TODAY...OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  62  74  49 / 100  50  50  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  61  74  48 / 100  60  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  61  72  47 / 100  60  50  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              70  55  74  46 / 100  60  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




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