Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 230640
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  WEAK COOL ADVECTION
WILL BE OFFSET BY PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRY AIR AND LOW
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
EARLY AND ABOUT AVERAGE LATE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK AND
FORCING NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.  DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE
HWO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             74  45  77  58 /   0   0  10  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  42  76  57 /   0   0   0  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       72  42  76  57 /   0   0  10  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  38  75  50 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/LW


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