Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 310715
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST
VA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED (LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT)...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WEAKENS. WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL PLAN TO LOWER POPS INTO THE CHANCE
RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE A POTENTIALLY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY DEVELOP. THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
THEN FURTHER DECREASE AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS...
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A FLATTENED UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES FOR
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
PROMOTE CONTINUE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO KICK OFF THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER. ADDITIONALLY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
FAVORING THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT THE BEST DAYS FOR COVERAGE MAY BE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE WASHING OUT ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH A 20 TO 30 POP WARRANTED EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY
/WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WEST HEADING TOWARD THE WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PLACE THE
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PERHAPS ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  70  93  71 /  50  30  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  87  69  91  69 /  50  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  69  91  69 /  60  30  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  66  87  63 /  50  40  20  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/AMP



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