Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KMRX 050715
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WRN VA ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF THE 250MB JET SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY AS
MORE MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCES WILL
OCCUR OVER SW NC AND THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXTEND INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE WANING LATER IN THE NIGHT.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING
FROM THE LOW 90S SOUTH TO LOWER 80S NORTH. SUNDAY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY LEADING TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY BEFORE DRIER AIR IS BROUGHT
IN. WILL STILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AS WE START THE WORK WEEK
AS A SEMI MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THIS PATTERN OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE WE SHIFT PATTERNS. A FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT MODELS HAVE
HAD A BIT OF A TOUGH TIME DECIDING ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS
FRONT. THEY HAVE CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT TO THE POINT WHERE
SOME ARE SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE OVER US, OR
JUST TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD BRING IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS
WE HAVE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RIGHT OVER US.
WILL NOT IMMEDIATELY BUY WHOLE HOG WITH THIS SOLUTION DUE TO RUN-
TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES, BUT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. IF THIS SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL SO
HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  69  88  68 /  30  20  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  89  68  85  67 /  40  20  40  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  68  86  67 /  30  20  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              85  63  84  64 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC/ABM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.