Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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912
FXUS64 KMRX 021845
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY INTO TOMORROW)...
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SUNSHINE WAS ABLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE CLOUDS
TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR GOOD DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE SEEING MODERATE
CAPE OF GENERALLY OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH MODERATE SHEAR OF
30 TO 40 KNOTS. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE THAT MOVE OVER AND ALLOW FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STILL BELIEVE THE BIGGEST THREAT
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL, HAIL, AND STRONG WINDS. WITH THE STORMS
MOVING PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WE COULD SEE TRAINING STORMS
LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. HOPEFULLY WITH THE LACK OF
RAINFALL IN THE PAST MONTH THE RIVERS AND LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THE QUICK HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. THE STRONGEST OF
THE STORMS WILL COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT... AND WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED WE COULD
SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART...AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW
DIGGING IN BEHIND IT. WILL HAVE COLDER AIR MOVING IN AS WELL DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. WILL SEE SHOWERS AT TIMES...AND
PERHAPS SOME THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS MAIN TROUGH DIGS IN AND AHEAD OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
NORTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FREEZING LEVELS MAY GET LOW
ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT
OVER THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH STILL
SOME QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER THERE WILL BE MUCH MOISTURE AT TEMPS
FAVORING ICE CRYSTALLIZATION. UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN STARTING FRIDAY...AND WILL BE OVER THE
REGION INTO MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  76  50  71 /  80  20  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  59  73  49  68 /  80  40  20  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       59  74  50  68 /  80  30  20  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  72  47  65 /  90  60  40  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/LW



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