Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 260700
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
300 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
Currently some precipitation activity moving in from Middle
Tennessee, this is associated with a weak upper level disturbance
moving across. As this moves across we will see some chances for
scattered showers and even some rumbles of thunder as the daylight
hours roll around. We will also see an increase in cloud coverage
today with the disturbance hopefully helping to keep high
temperatures down just a bit. Models continue to produce
precipitation activity later today. Currently believe the best
chances will be in the mountains and northern counties. Will only
continue with slight chances in the forecast as forcing still looks
pretty unfavorable for anything widespread this afternoon.


.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A high pressure ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
across the Deep South for the Memorial Day weekend...but a weak
coastal low over the Carolinas...could bring some opportunities for
precipitation and cloud cover during the early to middle part of
next week. For Friday thru Sunday...mainly dry conditions are
expected...but a few isolated to widely scattered storms are
possible thanks to the abundant Gulf moisture that is present. This
activity will favor the Cumberland Plateau and the East TN/West NC
Mountains. A mostly to partly sunny sky will promote very warm
conditions each day...in the mid to upper 80s for highs.

The aforementioned ridge will gradually begin to break down and
shift northeast over the Mid-Atlantic on late this holiday
weekend...which will open the door for a weak tropical disturbance
to possibly drift toward the region during the early to middle part
of the new week. There is some model disagreement on the track and
intensity of this feature...with the GFS indicating it may move
ashore into SC/NC...and generate cloud cover and much better chances
for showers and storms for Tuesday and especially Wednesday. The
ECMWF is much less excited about this...and shows this feature
remaining off shore...and much drier weather. We will continue to
monitor this potential in the coming days...as this will have a
large impact on PoP...sky...and temperature forecasts for the middle
of the week...especially for those with outdoor plans. For
now...show a gradual increase in thunder chances and PoPs each day
Monday through Wednesday...with the greatest chances being on
Wednesday. Despite the threat for additional cloud cover...the
overall forecast will remain quite warm and humid with highs
remaining in the 85 to 90 degree range each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             90  67  88  67 /  20  10  20  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  65  85  65 /  20  10  20  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       86  65  86  65 /  20  10  20  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              84  61  85  63 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

ABM/AMP



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