269
FXUS66 KMTR 080725
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1225 AM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Cooling continues through the weekend, with temperatures largely
near seasonal averages. Warming returns early next week as ridging
redevelops, though not expecting temperatures to reach as high as
they did the last few days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The short term forecast is in good shape with just some minor
tweaks to overnight wind grids for some of the East Bay
Hills/Mountains, as well as across coastal waters (including the
northern part of the San Francisco/San Pablo Bay areas).

Flow this evening along the shoreline remained quite brisk,
especially along the Marin Headlands up toward Bodega Bay. In
fact, the Bodega Bay Profiler indicates around 35 knots of flow
around 1km. Whether or not this momentum mixes down to the surface
is a little uncertain, however, some of the short-term guidance
(e.g., HRRR) suggests this is a possibility. Winds across some of
the coastal waters---from Bodega Bay down through the Golden Gate
Gap were adjusted upward to the 75th NBM percentile. Winds appear
that they`ll channel through the Golden Gate Gap and accelerate
through portions of the SF and San Pablo Bays, as well as the west
Delta. East Bay Hills and Mountains may also be recipients of
this accelerated flow. The 75th percentile NBM numbers translate
to 20 to 30 mph wind gusts later tonight into the pre-dawn hours
on Saturday morning. The impact will be rough boating conditions
for small craft as well as an increased potential for any loose
outdoor articles (trash cans, lawn furniture) to be blown about in
the wind.

The rest of the forecast remains in good shape and updated
products have been transmitted.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Low stratus clouds continue to linger along the coastline with some
sunshine occasionally breaking through this afternoon. Clear skies
farther inland have allowed temperatures to climb into the 70s and
80s, with some higher elevations to the east and south in the 90s
with breezy west/southwest surface winds. An upper level ridge axis
will shift east across our area for the remainder of today and
tonight while an upper trough deepens over the open water to our
west. The upper trough will produce increasing mid/high clouds
tomorrow afternoon helping to cool temperatures a few degrees
inland, while low stratus clouds persist keeping temperatures along
the coast in the 60s. The slow moving upper trough will result in
similar conditions on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The aforementioned slow moving upper trough eventually shifts east
by early Monday morning, while a cutoff low splits off from the
southern portion of the trough over the southeast Pacific. There`s
some uncertainty in the synoptic longwave pattern across our area,
depending on how the cutoff low evolves over the weekend. The
warming trend for the middle of next week and beyond remains in the
forecast but the max temperatures have trended slightly lower. The
warmer temperatures peak on Wednesday, with a gradual cooling trend
for late in the week as the cutoff low begins to move onshore across
SOCAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024


MVFR and IFR CIGs are moving inland affecting most of the TAF
sites overnight and into Saturday morning with some areas along
the coast and in the Monterey seeing CIGs into Saturday afternoon.
Pockets of haze look to continue to affect the region through much
of Saturday in spite of moderate to breezy winds through the
afternoon and evening. Winds reduce into Saturday night as stratus
moves slightly inland once again.


Vicinity of SFO...MVFR lasts through the late morning. Winds stay
moderate through the night and begin to increase into Saturday
afternoon as CIGs dissipate, with gusts peaking around 25 kts.
Portions of the SF Bay may still be affected my reduced
visibility from haze, but it becomes less likely into the
afternoon. Expect winds to reduce in the late evening, but stay
moderate through Saturday night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR-LIFR CIGS are expected through he
late morning before CIGs lift to MVFR levels into the afternoon
before dissipating. Winds stay light to moderate overnight with
some pockets of mist and drizzle affecting the terminals. Winds
increase in the mid afternoon as VFR returns, but haze could still
affect local visibility. Weaker winds and lower clouds return
Saturday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1126 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Overcast conditions continue over the inner coastal waters with
low  level stratus becoming more widespread overnight. Potential
for  patchy fog and light drizzle continues through tomorrow
morning,  particularly within the Monterey Bay and Big Sur
regions, which may  cause temporarily reduced visibilities.
Widespread fresh to strong  northwesterly gusts will develop over
the northern coastal waters  over the weekend and gradually extend
farther southward as an upper  level disturbance moves inland.
Significant wave heights build  throughout the weekend with wave
heights peaking between 12 to 14  feet. Elevated wave heights and
gusty conditions will create  hazardous conditions for small
crafts that will continue through the  weekend and into the
following work week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Sunday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Sunday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Kennedy

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