146
FXUS66 KMTR 311955
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1255 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

Cooler conditions begin tomorrow with temperatures near seasonal
averages across most of the region. Warmer temperatures return
Tuesday with moderate HeatRisk through the interior.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

Coastal stratus is degrading across the Central Coast and remains
mostly intact along the Big Sur coast and in patches near Marina and
Santa Cruz. Elsewhere, skies remain clear through the day with
stratus returning overnight across the coast and into Monterey Bay,
the Morgan Hill-Hollister corridor, and the East Bayshore. High
temperatures will continue to be above seasonal averages today with
the interior valleys seeing temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s,
the Bayshore hovering in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and the coast
seeing highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Lows tomorrow morning will
generally hover in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with some of the higher
peaks reaching into the low 60s. High resolution models are
suggesting a chance for some coastal drizzle early Saturday morning,
but any accumulations will be minimal (less than a tenth of an
inch).

A cooling trend should start on Saturday as we feel the fringe
effects of a shortwave trough coming through the Pacific Northwest,
allowing the building of a deeper marine layer. Temperatures will
cool to around the seasonal average for most of the region, with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, the mid 60s to lower 70s
along the Bayshore, and the mid 50s to lower 60s along the coast.
The interior valleys of the North bay and southern Central Coast
remain relatively warm as they retain high temperatures into the mid
to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

Temperatures remain close to seasonal averages through Monday as a
larger trough builds and comes into the Pacific Northwest, with the
peak effects on Monday when the North Bay valleys get a day of
relief as their highs fall to a seasonal upper 70s to lower 80s in
the region.

A warming trend begins on Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds
into the western United States. Model ensemble clusters continue to
show some disagreement on the strength and location of the ridge
axis, leading to considerable uncertainty on just how hot it will
get across the region. As of now the latest forecast shows highs
peaking on Wednesday, from the 90s into the lower 100s across the
interior regions while the coastal areas see highs in the mid 60s to
mid 70s. A moderate HeatRisk is in place for the inland regions,
with a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses in most people
sensitive to heat.

CPC products continue to suggest that temperatures above seasonal
averages continue through the middle of June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

Widespread VFR lasts into the evening. Moderate to breezy winds
build this afternoon, with stronger winds along the immediate coast
and over the ocean. Expect winds to reduce in the evening and
overnight hours as stratus begins to move inland from the coast as
well as filter into the SF Bay. This will give OAK and the Monterey
Bay terminals IFR/MVFR CIGs that will last into the mid morning.
Pockets of mist and drizzle will be possible along the coast as well.
Widespread VFR returns in the mid to late morning on Saturday, with
stronger winds expected to arrive that afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy to gusty
westerly winds arrive this afternoon with peak gusts around 21 kts.
Gusts taper off into the late night, but stay moderate through
Saturday afternoon before becoming strong and gusty. Overnight
winds look to prevent cloud cover from filling over SFO, but cloud
cover will be filling over OAK and to the north of SFO terminal.

SFO Bridge Approach...Scattered to broken clouds from 800 to 1400 ft
AGL will be possible around 10z to 18z Saturday.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR and moderate west winds last into the
evening. MVFR CIGs arrive into the evening as winds reduce. IFR CIGs
and pockets of drizzle and mist will push inland in the late night.
CIGs and drizzle chances reduce into the mid to late morning,
followed by VFR and breezy winds for Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 849 AM PDT Fri May 31 2024

Breezy to gusty northwest winds will continue over the outer
waters into the weekend with gale force winds expected late Friday
and into Saturday. This will cause a hazardous marine environment.
Significant wave heights will reach up to about 11-12 feet Friday
afternoon, but will begin to reduce today through the remainder
of the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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