Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
FXUS66 KMTR 282255
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
355 PM PDT THU JUL 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Very warm and dry conditions will persist inland
through Friday as high pressure remains aloft. Meanwhile, cooler
conditions will continue near the coast as a result of onshore
flow. A region- wide cooling trend is then forecast for the
upcoming weekend as an upper level trough develops off of the
Pacific Northwest Coast.
.DISCUSSION...as of 01:46 PM PDT Thursday...Very warm conditions
persist again this afternoon as a strong ridge of high pressure
remains over much of the southwestern portion of the country. In
addition, above the 1000 foot deep marine layer, very dry
conditions continue. While the marine layer has mixed out some
this afternoon, do expect low clouds to spread locally inland
again tonight and linger into early Friday morning. Afternoon
conditions on Friday will be similar to today as the ridge aloft
remains the dominate weather feature.
Temperatures cool slightly on Saturday as the ridge weakens and
onshore flow increases. Further cooling, especially inland, is
forecast for Sunday and into early next week as the ridge shifts
to the east ahead of a mid/upper level trough forecast to push
inland into the Pacific Northwest. Overall, temperatures will fall
back to near seasonal averages from Sunday into early part of next
week. Warmest conditions will be inland while cooler temperatures
persist near the coast given a persistent onshore flow. Also,
expecting the marine layer to deepen slightly this weekend into
early next week with overnight and morning low clouds spreading
locally inland. Dry weather conditions are also forecast to
prevail through the forecast period.
.AVIATION...as of 10:50 AM PDT Thursday... Soberanes fire smoke is
less concentrated around the region this morning... leading to
improved visibilities and ceilings versus previous few mornings.
A compressed marine layer did nudge itself slightly inland last
night and lead to very low ceilings/visibilities, especially when
combined with any lingering smoke around the Monterey Bay region.
The marine layer has now retreated and widespread VFR is now being
reported across all TAF sites. Expect a similar early return of
VLIFR along the immediate coast by 03-04Z. Smoke plume is expected
to be thickest southeast of the Soberanes fire today.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR with onshore winds AOA 15KT. MVFR/IFR cigs
posbl around sunrise tomorrow.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with several layers of lingering
smoke from 3000 and above this morning. Bulk of smoke should be
aimed away from KMRY but some will infiltrate the airport into the
afternoon. Early return of VLIFR-LIFR cigs/visbys by 03/04Z posbl.
.FIRE WEATHER...as of 3:55 AM PDT Thursday...Smoke is still
lingering around the fire district today as transport winds remain
relatively light with varying directions through the vertical.
Tomorrow smoke transport winds in the Monterey area look to become
more from the south direction. This may bring more smoke to
Salinas and Monterey as well as into the Santa Clara Valley. The
marine layer mixed out a bit today but according to the Fort Ord
profiler it is holding steady at 800 to 1000 feet. Low clouds are
anticipated to return to Monterey airport by around 0300Z this
.MARINE...as of 03:32 PM PDT Thursday...Light to moderate north
winds will continue over the coastal waters today. Winds will be
strongest over the northern outer waters and north of the Bay
Bridge. A mixed swell will continue in the coastal waters. A longer
period southwest swell arrives later in the week as a tropical
.Tngt...SCA...SF Bay until 3 AM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
FIRE WEATHER: Sims
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