Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 300545
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1045 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS....STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HILLS TONIGHT WITH
A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AS A FRONT PASSES DOWN THE SIERRA CREST.
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EASE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT BRING SUNNY
AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE BAY AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S AND 80S. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY BUT STILL SUNNY AND WARM. A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
CONTINUED DRY. NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH A COOLING TREND
LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:56 PM PDT FRIDAY...TONIGHTS VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY BARES A STRIKING RESEMBLANCE TO THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY CAPTURED 24 HOURS AGO. STATIONARY WAVE CLOUDS HAVE ONCE
AGAIN FORMED ALONG THE SAN MATEO AND MONTEREY PENINSULA COAST WITH
LINES OF CLOUDS EXTENDING OUT OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES FINISHED OFF
THE DAY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS A RESULT OF STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS THAT WERE SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND BRISK ONSHORE
FLOW. WINDS WERE ONCE AGAIN STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
48 MPH GUSTS REPORTED AT SFO. THE NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT FROM
ACV TO SFO INCREASED DRAMATICALLY FROM 5.1 MB TO 8.4 MB THIS
EVENING IN DIRECT CORRELATION TO THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS REPORTED. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT FROM SFO TO SAC INCREASED
SLIGHTLY FROM 3.0 MB TO 3.6 MB WHILE THE GRADIENT FROM SFO AND WMC
EASED FROM 6.3 MB TO 0.9 MB. THE EASING OF THE GRADIENT FROM SFO
TO WMC IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE WINDS SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE HILLS OF THE NORTH AND EAST BAY AS WELL AS
OVER THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THESE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY SATURDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW TAKES
HOLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST AND 70S AND 80S INLAND. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE COAST.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND LIKELY A
RETURNING COASTAL STRATUS LAYER. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST BY MIDWEEK.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AND RAIN CHANCES
AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT FRIDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE LLWS AT KOAK
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS
OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT CIGS FROM DEVELOPING IN THE SF BAY AREA.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT NEAR MONTEREY BAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 16Z SATURDAY. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS ON FRIDAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS ON FRIDAY EVENING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR RELATIVELY EARLY ON SATURDAY...BY 16Z. VFR THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:48 PM PDT FRIDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THESE WINDS WILL
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH STEEP WIND WAVES AND FRESH
SWELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS AND SANTA
              CRUZ MOUNTAINS BEGINNING AT 11 PM PDT.
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: MM


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