Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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428
FXUS66 KMTR 221551
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
851 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLIGHT WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:38 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE OVERALL WEATHER
PICTURE THIS MORNING IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS
RIDGING OVER EPAC WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH SOCAL INTO
S NEVADA. THE UPPER LOW IS THE LIKELY CAUSE FOR THIS MORNING/S
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE BAY
AREA. KMUX IMAGERY KEEP MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED FROM ROUGHLY
SUNNYVALE SOUTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAVE
MOSTLY BEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE SOUTH OF SF BAY. AN ADDITIONAL FEW HUNDREDTHS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:49 AM PDT FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS BKN-OVC025 ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME BKN-OVC015 BY AROUND
0300Z. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REACH 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS BKN-OVC025 ARE
ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE TO VFR SCT025 BKN050 THIS AFTERNOON. OVC015
WILL RETURN BY AROUND 0300Z. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REACH 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 15KT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:07 AM PDT FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE
INCREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STAY UP THIS WEEKEND BUT THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR DECREASING WINDS AND IMPROVING SEA CONDITIONS FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 7 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

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