Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
FXUS66 KMTR 292050
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
150 PM PDT WED JUN 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in continued
warm to very warm temperatures over inland areas through late week.
Meanwhile, coastal areas will remain cooler due to the persistent
marine influence. Temperatures will then cool back to near seasonal
averages region-wide for the Forth of July Holiday Weekend and
will likely persist into next week.
.DISCUSSION...as of 01:48 PM PDT Wednesday...A weak mid/upper
level trough along the Pacific Northwest and northern California
coast has allow for cooling along coastal areas today. This too
has resulted in a deepening marine layer that is currently around
1500 feet in depth according to the Fort Ord Profiler. Meanwhile,
a persistent ridge over the Desert Southwest continues to result
in warm temperatures over inland areas of the region. As a result,
many coastal areas remain in the 50s at this hour with some higher
elevations in the southern portion of the region already exceeding
the 100 degree mark. Similar conditions are forecast through
Friday with the coastal locations predominately influenced by the
marine layer while a warm/dry air mass inland will bring another
afternoon of warm to very warm temperatures.
Through the weekend, the mid/upper level trough will deepen and
drop southward into the Pacific Northwest. This will allow for
coastal cooling to spread inland across the entire region. By
Saturday and Sunday, daytime temperatures will cool back down to
near seasonal averages. Thus, expect temperatures in the 80s to
lower 90s inland compared to the 90s to around 105 degrees we have
seen the past several days. Locations around the bays and near the
coast won`t see much of a cool down due to the persistent marine
layer and onshore influences.
Not expecting much change as we head into the next work week with
generally troughing over the Pacific Northwest and ridging inland
to our east. This will also promoted continued dry weather
conditions aside for light mist/drizzle with overnight and early
morning fog/coastal stratus. Overall, temperatures will be near
seasonal norms from this weekend into next week.
.AVIATION...as of 10:48 AM PDT Wednesday...Stratus is slow to
burn off today as the marine layer is holding steady at a depth of
1200 feet. The current visible satellite image is showing a strong
stratus field over the coastal waters and embedded along the
coast. An upper level low is moving into northern California and
should help to maintain this deep marine layer. With this in mind
expect an early stratus return to the terminals later this
afternoon and early this evening.
Vicinity of KSFO...Stratus continues to intermittently impact the
terminals but will hopefully dissipate by around 2000Z. An early
return is expected this evening with stratus to arrive between
0300 and 0500Z. Westerly winds are anticipated to reach 22kt this
Confidence is moderate.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus remains in place over KMRY this
morning and may stick around today. At this point hope is that the
skies will scatter out for a brief period around 2000Z before
stratus returns by 0200Z. Westerly winds are anticipated to reach
15 kt this afternoon.
Confidence is low.
.MARINE...as of 08:22 AM PDT Wednesday...Steep seas and gusty
northwesterly winds will prevail through at least Thursday as a
strong surface pressure gradient persists along the California
coast. A long period southerly swell will also begin to move into
the waters today. The surface pressure gradient is anticipated to
weaken Thursday evening bringing lighter winds to the inner
coastal waters for the weekend.
.Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 PM
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
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