Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 172341
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
341 PM PST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and seasonably cool weather can be expected
through the weekend. The next system will bring renewed chances
of rain starting late Sunday Night. Additional rainfall is
possible the rest of the week, especially for the North Bay.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 1:30 PM PST Friday...Showers have come to an
end with satellite showing the only area with clouds confined to
far southeastern Monterey County plus San Benito County.
Additional rainfall this morning was very light in fact most ares
did not pick up anything additional. With more sunshine
temperatures have been running a bit warmer than Thursday. Most
places today will end in the 60s.

Dry weather will continue into the weekend as a ridge of high
pressure builds into our region. Temperatures are expected to be
mostly in the upper 50s to mid 60s during the day with 30s and 40s
overnight. North Bay Valley spots will drop into the 30s and
possibly even a few 20s. NAM guidance came up a few degree
compared to yesterday, so will not go with a freeze warning at
this time.

Rain will return to our region late on Sunday or early Monday as
low moves to the PacNW coast while an associated front approaches
our region. The bulk of the moisture and favorable dynamics will
stay north of our CWA, however the southern edge will go into the
North Bay. The front will dissipate as it progresses farther to
the south, so any rainfall down to Monterey Bay will be very
limited. By Tuesday generally 1/3-1" can be expected over the
North Bay with 2/10" to 1/2" around San Francisco Bay into the
Santa Cruz Mountains. Lesser amounts are likely for the remainder
of our region. No issues are anticipated around recent burn areas.

Beyond Tuesday, still a moderate about of uncertainty with the
storm track and how far south moisture will progress. Overall now
looks like most of the rain will stay to our north with just some
light precipitation anticipated over the North Bay and possibly
into the San Francisco Bay area. Thanksgiving Day look mostly dry
with just a slight chance for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 3:40 PM PST Friday...For 00z Tafs. No major
changes from previous aviation discussion. VFR will continue,
along with light winds, through the TAF period. Kept shallow
patchy dense fog for KSTS late tonight into sunrise Saturday for
now, but with relatively low confidence.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Light and variable winds after sunset.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. W/NW winds until sunset, then turn
E/SE late this evening, but will remain below 10 kt.

&&

.MARINE...as of 09:52 AM PST Friday...Generally light to locally
moderate northerly winds today, then  decreasing through the
weekend. Strongest winds today will be along the Big Sur coast.
Winds turn southerly and increase Sunday night into early Monday
ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Seas  light to moderate, easing
through the coming days.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell
AVIATION: BAM
MARINE: DRP

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