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000
FXUS66 KMTR 060042
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
442 PM PST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
COULD BRING A STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...DUE TO COMMUNICATION
ISSUES WE ARE UNABLE TO ACCESS MOST OF THE AVAILABLE DATA
INCLUDING SATELLITE IMAGES AND SOME MODEL DATA. AS A RESULT NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER WE DO NOT
SEE THE NEED FOR CHANGES AS THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY
QUIET THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS SETTLED OVER THE STATE
AND TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S TODAY WHILE
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES. SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. THIS WILL NOT IMPACT INLAND
TEMPERATURES MUCH BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH
PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MEDIUM RANGE GFS SHOWS A SYSTEM POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES AS THE 12Z RUN SHOWED SOME RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE CWA NEXT WEDNESDAY BUT THE 18Z RUN HAS KEPT THE
RAIN TO VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH BAY. PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE
SUGGESTED THE SYSTEM MAY CUTOFF AND REMAIN OFFSHORE RESULTING IN
NO RAIN. FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 PM PST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEAK LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SEABREEZE...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:39 AM PST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
A MIXED SWELL WILL ALSO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: RGASS

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