165
FXUS66 KMTR 160717
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1217 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1232 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

Quiet weather will continue with a persistent marine layer through
the forecast period. Morning clouds and mist will clear in the
afternoon. Despite the clearing, coastal areas will remain in the
cool marine air, keeping highs in the 60s. Inland and high
elevation areas will reach the 70s and 80s each afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1217 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

High pressure aloft remains the predominant weather feature over the
northeast Pacific as weak troughing prevails across the Desert
Southwest. We remain on the eastern periphery of the ridge, with
minimal influence so far. In fact, the marine layer remains
relatively stable from where it was 24 hours ago with a depth of 1.5-
2 kft. Some patchy drizzle was observed around the Monterey Bay
area within the past few hours as well. Expect the upper ridge
location to remain fairly similar for the remainder of the short
term forecast period with little overall change. It`s possible that
the marine layer may compress a little given the nearby ridge, but
so far it`s remained fairly consistent in depth. Otherwise it`s
another day of low clouds clearing to the coast during the afternoon
before returning this evening and overnight. Highs today will remain
seasonally cool and range from the upper 50s along the coast to the
lower-mid 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1217 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

Expect a transition towards west coast troughing by early next week.
This pattern is supportive of weak cold frontal passages, cooler
temperatures, and breezy northwest winds. Coastal drizzle may become
a bit more prominent at times as well. High temperatures will be
mostly in the 60s and 70s, with the warmest inland areas perhaps
breaking 80 degrees. But by and large readings will remain a touch
below seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

Currently a mix of VFR-LIFR at the terminals. As the marine layer
continues to slightly compress, IFR-LIFR conditions are to be
expected at all terminals overnight with the exception of SFO
which is expected to at least get a low-end MVFR ceiling. Widespread
VFR and onshore flow will prevail by tomorrow afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Confidence is
high that the terminal will get a ceiling overnight with the
uncertainty lying on whether it will be low-end MVFR like what has
been observed the last two nights or if it will be affected by
the compression of the marine layer and dip to IFR. Either way,
VFR to prevail by late morning tomorrow. Winds become more
southwesterly through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with westerly flow at MRY
and IFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. SNS is expected to further
deteriorate to LIFR with both terminals VFR by tomorrow afternoon.
IFR conditions are slated to return to both terminals by tomorrow
night. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1037 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

Moderate to fresh northwesterly winds prevail as surface high
pressure over the Eastern Pacific continues to weaken. Seas will
also continue to abate through Thursday. By Friday the surface
high strengthens and moves eastward, strengthening northwesterly
breezes and building wave heights through the weekend and into
next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Saturday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...DialH

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