753
FXUS66 KMTR 051923
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1223 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1134 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Conditions clearing out today in the wake of yesterday`s front.
Cool weather to kick off the week, but a notable warm up is on the
way for the latter half of the week into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1134 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Visible satellite showing ample clearing across much of the area
in the wake of the cold front yesterday. Some isolated cumulus
continue to form over complex terrain areas as a result of
daytime heating and a hint of lingering low level instability.
However, don`t expect much in the way of additional precip in
these areas. There is still a bit of a hindrance in the form of
some capping stability in the low to mid levels. Some areas in the
highest peaks of the Santa Lucia and Santa Cruz Mtns can`t rule
out a sprinkle or two this afternoon, but anything outside of that
seems to be a very low chance. The weather remains quiet into
Monday with clear and dry conditions. Overnight temperatures into
Monday morning will be on the chilly side once again, similar to
last night, but we will warm up from here.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1134 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Beyond Monday, the pattern shifts to become dominated by a
longwave ridge settling in over the Western US. The region will
remain dry through the rest of the week with temperatures
gradually heating up into the weekend. As it stands, Thursday and
Friday look to be the warmest as afternoon highs are forecast to
rise into the mid-80s across inland valleys and 70s elsewhere.
Once again, with temps above seasonal averages by the end of the
week and coming off the heels of an anomalously cold system, it is
important to remind ourselves that these quick changes in
temperatures can still result in heat-related illness, even with
highs in the 80s. As a result, much of our area below about 3500
feet and off the immediate coast will be under a minor Heat Risk
Wednesday into the weekend. This primarily affects individuals who
are extremely sensitive to heat, especially when outdoors without
effective means of cooling or adequate hydration.

In the longer term, any chance for rain is dismal as we inch
closer to our typical summertime pattern, and a there is a slight
chance that above normal temperatures persist into the following
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR through the TAF period. Gusty west to northwest winds return
this afternoon and continue into the evening with light to moderate
winds expected overnight. Satellite shows cumulus clouds developing
in the South Bay and along the Central Coast. MVFR CIGs are tempoed
for SNS and SJC until 19-20Z with moderate to high confidence that
as CIGs continue to rise VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of
the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Gusty west to
northwest winds with gusts up to 25 knots continue through the late
evening with guidance indicating gusts drop off between 04-6Z.
Moderate to confidence that gusts will not exceed 25 knots with
probabilistic guidance indicating a low probability (0-10% chance)
of gusts greater than 25 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Gusty west to
northwest winds with gusts up to 20 knots possible through the late
evening. Satellite shows cumulus clouds developing over MRY and SNS.
Tempoed MVFR conditions from 18-20Z at SNS due to increasing
thickness of cloud coverage but 5 minute observations show rising
CIG heights which increases confidence that VFR conditions will
return by 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Isolated rain showers linger over the coastal waters with shower
potential diminishing heading into the late morning. Dry
conditions  return by Sunday afternoon and prevail through the
forecast  period. Moderate to fresh winds continue in portions the
southern waters with a coastal jet developing from Point Pinos to
Point  Piedras Blancas. Elsewhere, moderate northwesterly breezes
prevail through tomorrow. Winds strengthen and become more
northerly  Tuesday through Thursday as surface higher pressure
builds and  moves eastward. Significant wave heights will begin
building on  Monday, posing hazardous conditions for small craft
through  Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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