034
FXUS66 KMTR 241736
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1036 AM PDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1231 AM PDT Fri May 24 2024

Cool temperatures this weekend with a slight warm up slated for
next week. Quiet, summer-like pattern persists through the period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 AM PDT Fri May 24 2024

Marine layer is sitting around 2k feet this morning as noted by
KOAK sounding. Vis satellite imagery shows the marine layer is
non-continuous across the region with clear skies in locales and
cloudy in other. Why the mix? It`s likely due to strong northerly
flow over the coastal waters battling stronger onshore flow.
Regardless, the trend over the last hour has been thinning of the
cloud deck. Some patchy low clouds will linger along portions of
the coast this afternoon. Speaking of onshore flow, latest obs
show some decent wind gusts through the inland passes/gaps. Gusts
of 35-45 mph have been observed in the East Bay.

No update needed this morning. Simply put, temperatures today
will be below seasonal averages heading into the holiday weekend.

MM

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1231 AM PDT Fri May 24 2024

High clouds passing through the region this morning and through
today in response to a transient upper level trough. Inland
temperatures drop about 4-8 degrees compared to yesterday`s highs
as cooler air makes its way in behind a weak front. Coastal areas
may see a degree or too cooler, but largely unchanged temperature
wise. Main changes to the forecast this morning are the addition
of drizzle to some coastal areas for this morning as the trough
coming through will provide some weak lift within the marine
layer, perhaps even enough for a few hundredths in a few places.
Many locations will see clearing skies today, especially inland,
though many coastal locations may not escape the cloud cover for
most of today thanks to a deep, moist marine layer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1231 AM PDT Fri May 24 2024

Cooler temperatures persist through the weekend as the trough
slowly exits with additional and perhaps more widespread drizzle
into Saturday morning. As a broad ridge builds next week, expect
high temps to gradually increase early week with afternoon highs
right around seasonal normals by the middle of the week. Overall
not much impact in the forecast period. Even with the weak trough
passing inland, winds remain onshore supporting good moisture
return. A typical, quiet, summer-time pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 AM PDT Fri May 24 2024

Satellite imagery shows MVFR stratus clearing out across the SF Bay
Area and Monterey Bay region, expected to continue through the rest
of the morning. Breezy and sometimes gusty northwest winds will
develop this afternoon, with gusts up to around 20 to 25 knots. High
confidence for at least MVFR stratus coming into the terminals
through the evening and overnight hours, except for the North Bay
terminals where confidence is moderate. IFR to LIFR stratus will
develop later on in the night along the coast, and into the SF Bay
terminals and near Monterey Bay.

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR stratus clearing within the next couple of
hours. Strong west winds will develop through the day with sustained
winds near 20 knots and gusts around 30 knots. At this time, low
confidence that winds will gust above 35 knots. Will monitor
evolution of winds throughout the day and will amend TAF if
necessary. High confidence of MVFR or marginal IFR stratus coming
into the terminal area tonight, clearing late Saturday morning with
similarly strong, but not as gusty, west winds Saturday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR stratus expected to clear out later
this morning. Breezy northwest winds gusting to 20-25 knots will
develop this afternoon. MVFR stratus will return this evening, with
a high confidence of ceilings descending to IFR-LIFR through the
night into early Saturday morning. Clearing is not expected until
after the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 911 AM PDT Fri May 24 2024

A weakening pressure gradient will allow for strong northwesterly
breezes to ever so slightly diminish and significant wave heights
to abate going into the weekend; however, hazardous conditions and
steeper wind waves will still be prevalent across the waters. As
surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean builds and
moves east by mid-week, northwesterly breezes will increase and
significant wave heights will build.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60
     NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea