Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 280022
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
422 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM FROM THE MORNING MOVES
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:30 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN FELL THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF SAN JOSE. WHILE THERE WERE REPORTS
OF DRIZZLE IN THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY...MEASURABLE PRECIP WAS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY. THE
MARQUEZ RAWS AT 2500 FEET IN SAN BENITO COUNTY REPORTED THE
HIGHEST TOTAL AT THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. ELSEWHERE TOTALS WERE
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. VERTICAL PROFILING RADAR
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HOWEVER IT REMAINS VERY DRY BELOW. SKIES REMAIN
OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT WITH IT THE
LIGHT RAIN PUSHED OFF THE NORTHEAST.

THE LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN KEEPING WEATHER DRY
AND MILD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES UP FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY. MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...MORE SO THAN WITH THE
RAIN TODAY.

AS THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THE RIDGE OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS AND NUDGES IN TO THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES WARMER INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE GFS HOLDING ON TO THE RIDGE AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES WHILE
THE ECMWF PARTIALLY COLLAPSES THE RIDGE WHILE SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

FURTHER AHEAD THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS RIDGING GENERALLY
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS WARMER AND DRYER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
DAY 14.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:21 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. MAINLY
DEALING WITH HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM. TAFS WILL SHOW VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS
TIME NOT EXPECTING FOG OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 4:21 PM PST TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. BY MIDWEEK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC RESULTING IN MODERATE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION: RWW
MARINE: MM

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