Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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774 FXUS63 KOAX 062023 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible Friday evening through early Saturday. Hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. - The first "hot" weather of the season looks increasingly likely late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A sunny afternoon for the entire Corn Belt had me zooming out to find a couple of isolated clouds south of the KC metro. Temps this afternoon have outperformed the previous forecast by a couple of degrees with most locations peaking near 80 to 83F. Breezy northwesterly winds are gusting up to 35 mph at times but are forecast to slow this evening and become light and variable overnight under a surface high. .FRIDAY... High to mid-level clouds begin building into the area Friday morning along a developing warm front pushing in from the west. Dewpoints, mostly in the 30s now, will begin climbing overnight as the light and variable winds get their groove back and become southerly tomorrow. By mid-day Friday, the warm front will be in eastern Nebraska - draped north to south - and dewpoints will be closer to 50F before they peak near 60 in the afternoon and evening, especially south of the Platte River. High temps along the SD state line will peak near 80 with 90 possible along Nebraska`s southern border. Hodographs reveal significant shear of 50 knots throughout the day. Southerly surface flow develops under westerly 700hPa flow and northwesterly 500hPa flow. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg should be sufficient for supercell development. North central Nebraska may see upscale growth of an MCS that later pushes into this CWA. With shear vectors almost entirely in the same direction of motion of this prospective MCS, it would become outflow dominant quickly. It may still pose a wind threat, but the tornado threat with this second round of storms will be near zero. In eastern Nebraska, we may be impacted by both the MCS and the chance of supercells earlier in the afternoon and evening especially on the nose of the developing LLJ and near the warm front. The tornado threat will be highest in the vicinity of the eastward moving warm front. Weaker convection may continue through sunrise along the KS state line. .THE WEEKEND.... Saturday will be cooler with highs mostly in the upper 70s with northwesterly flow of 10-20 mph. Sunday will be a near repeat. Both days will be dry with a chance of scattered convection along the cold front slipping through Kansas. Scattered PoPs have been maintained along the state line. The next best chance of convection (30%) will come on Tuesday with the passage of a weak cold front pushing through the increasingly humid atmosphere. Southerly flow returns on Wednesday and Thursday and temps are likely to push past 90F for the first time for many. (NBM probability of hitting 90F in Omaha on Thursday is 78%). That`s a full month behind the thirty year average and the second latest date in the past 30 years (6/16 vs 6/17/2009) for the city. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Quiet weather with VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Gusty northwesterly winds will continue until sunset with light and variable winds will settle into the area. Friday morning brings light southeasterly flow before a chance of thunderstorms develops Friday afternoon and evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Nicolaisen