606
FXUS63 KOAX 041702
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1202 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances Tuesday afternoon (50-80%) with a 15-20% chance
  of severe storms, mainly in southeast Nebraska and southwest
  Iowa. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

- Saturated soils continue to keep flooding a concern as showers
  and storms move through northeast Nebraska this afternoon.

- Mostly dry Wednesday into the weekend with highs in the mid
  70s to mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Today and Tonight...

Monday night satellite imagery indicated an area of low pressure
churning over eastern Kansas and into northern Missouri.
Additionally, an area of convection festered over west-central
Nebraska in response to an approaching cold front attendant to a low
over southern Canada.

This boundary will continue to trek eastward through the morning
hours, bringing increasing chances of precipitation to the region
throughout the day. Increasing warm air advection will begin to
develop after 7 AM, and could help spark a few morning storms in
eastern Nebraska ahead of the incoming front, where dry low levels
could result in a stray strong gust or two due to evaporative
cooling. During the afternoon, sufficient instability is expected to
develop and strong convergence along the front is expected to result
in an increasing-in-coverage line of showers and storms. The latest
CAM solutions depict storms initiating to the northwest of the Omaha
and Lincoln metros by around 2-3 PM, with those storms exiting to
the east by 9 PM.

Weak shear of less than 20 kts will lower the ceiling of any severe
threat with storms this afternoon. The highest potential for severe
storms is expected to occur at peak heating and shortly after when
instability is maximized, with largely straight line hodographs
pushing the main hazard towards damaging hail and wind (though a
tornado can`t be ruled out in far southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa). Cloud cover associated with the area of low pressure spinning
off to our southeast over parts of Kansas and Missouri could muddle
severe potential/destabilization, however at least a few storms are
expected to bubble up this afternoon.

In addition to severe threats, another concern will be heavy
rainfall. While this line of storms does look to be fairly
progressive today, It wouldn`t take much new rainfall to produce
flooding over recently saturated soils.

Wednesday and Beyond:

With the front moving off to the east for Wednesday, we`ll find
ourselves in a northwesterly mid/upper flow pattern with the main
jet streak settled nearly overhead to just north of the area. Rain
chances for the remainder of the work week remain low, but there
could be a pop up storm or two that develops as a shortwave moves
through the flow Wednesday or Friday evening. Highs during this time
will remain nice in the upper 70s to 80s with typical afternoon
winds of 20 to 25 mph keeping things from feeling stagnant outside.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

We have a line of storms forecast to move across the area this
afternoon, though significant cloud cover over the region of
development appears to be hampering the environment where they
are expected to develop. Confidence for storm development has
lowered a bit, but still expect around a 60-70% chance of
thunderstorms to move through the terminals between 19-23Z this
afternoon. Expect winds to start to shift to northwesterly ahead
of storm arrival, with a full shift to northwesterly behind the
storms by 00Z. Skies will clear out behind the storms tonight
with winds becoming lighter to around 5 kt overnight. By
daybreak on Wednesday we`ll see winds shift to south or
southwesterly then start to increase towards Wednesday
afternoon, but VFR conditions should prevail under mostly clear
skies.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...McCoy