Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 251956
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
256 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Potential for periods of thunderstorms will extend through the
short term portion of the forecast. Good moisture and instability
is expected to remain across the region during this time frame as
a pair of upper troughs kick out a series of short waves across the
plains region.

Surface map at 19z showed an area of low pressure over northeast
South Dakota with a weak trough extending from the low into
northwest Nebraska. A second low was over south central Kansas
with a warm front extending into northeast Kansas and a dry line
stretching south into north central Texas. These two surface
features are expected to be the primary focus for thunderstorm
development into Thursday.

A few storms had already developed over far western Nebraska and
western South Dakota early this afternoon with short range models
showing them spreading east ahead of the Dakota surface trough
into the evening as an upper wave tracks toward the upper midwest.
Main focus then shifts to the south on Thursday and Thursday night
with Kansas system as warm front lifts north to vicinity of
southern Nebraska border by late afternoon. This boundary
continues to lift into eastern Nebraska during the evening
becoming stationary in a northeast to southwest orientation by
late evening into early Friday. Combination of stalled boundary
and high PW will allow strong chance of heavy rain event across
the area Thursday night, likely preceeded by severe weather event
late Thursday afternoon and evening. No headlines at this time but
will mention in HWO and blast message to increase awareness of the
potential.

Chance of storms will continue for Friday into Saturday as the
main upper trough moves across the lower Missouri valley.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Upper pattern flattens for a time behind the lower Missouri valley
trough Saturday night into Sunday but begins to amplify again
Sunday night into Monday. This will allow another extended period
of showers and thunderstorms to setup across the region through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

VFR conditions are forecast through Thursday morning, outside of
any isolated thunderstorms that manage to pop up. That chance is
slim so was not mentioned in forecasts, but an unstable atmosphere
suggests hit-and-miss storms could fire late this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise a general south to southwest flow at or below
12kt can be expected with scattered to broken clouds between FL050
and Fl120.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Dergan


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