Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 081120
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
520 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Arctic high pressure continues to build southeast across the area
this morning with a modest surface gradient keeping winds around
10-15kts with gusts still in the 20-25kt range. As a result,
early morning wind chills are generally in the -5 to -10 range. A
few low clouds continue to drift along and east of the Missouri
River and a few flurries were reported under these but should
continue to drift east as dry high pressure continues to build
overhead. The high pressure ridge will extend over the CWA by 12Z
Friday with overnight lows tonight close to zero in many areas.
Despite increasing return flow Friday, the day will still be dry
and cold as southerly winds increase. Wind chill values through
the day will likely be around 10-15 with highs in the lower 20s.

Warm air advection moves into the region ahead of the next upper
shortwave trough. High temperatures should be able to warm into the
lower to mid 30s for Saturday with bare ground in all areas. The
next piece of shortwave energy is forecast to move into the Plains
Saturday with strong isentropic lift centered over much of South
Dakota and northeastern Nebraska. Accumulating snow looks quite
possible across our northern tier of counties Saturday into Saturday
night with QPF values around a tenth of an inch along the SD/NE
border.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

A stronger piece of shortwave energy will slide east across the area
Sunday with a brief period of strong isentropic lift over the entire
CWA. Accumulating snowfall is possible in association with this
forcing as QPF values are forecast around two tenths of an inch.

Yet another shortwave moves toward the area Tuesday along with
another persistent cold surge. GFS would give the area
accumulating snow Monday night into Tuesday. The EC is beginning
to hint at this as well so will continue to monitor this time
period closely. Overall have trended lower with temperatures in
the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Patchy clouds with bases 1500 to 2500 feet were noted over the area
early this morning. The main area was from around Wayne southeast
into western Iowa. Some flurries were likely under these clouds.
Expect mainly VFR conditions for KOFK and KLNK but there may be a
period of MVFR ceilings at KOMA this morning. Northwest winds will
diminish to less than 10 knots after sunset.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Miller


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