Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 301730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE EXITING PRECIPITATION
EARLY...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN EXTENT
OF LOW CLOUDS AND WINDS BEHIND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

AT 00Z...A 110 KT JET AT H3 WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA INTO
THE PLAINS.  30M HT FALLS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.  A WARM WEDGE OF AIR WAS NOTED OVER NEBRASKA AT
H85 WITH 15DEG C AT LBF AND 6DEG C AT OAX.

THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND IOWA
EARLY THIS MORNING WAS PRODUCING ECHOES PER THE WSR-88D RADAR. OBS
APPEARED TO BE MOSTLY ALOFT AT 06Z...HOWEVER BY 07-08Z A FEW OF
THE CELLS STRENGTHENED WITH SOME LIGHTNING IN AN AREA FROM
SEWARD/SAUNDERS/LANCASTER/CASS/OTOE COUNTIES. CLOUDS WERE
GENERALLY FROM 8-12K FEET OR HIGHER. AT THE SURFACE...THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S.

TODAY...THE CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSHOWERS IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA/FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BETTER FORCING SHOULD
BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO MAY ONLY INCLUDE PRECIP MENTION
FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO.

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TODAY. DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED AND THIS SHOULD ASSIST TEMPERATURES
IN TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
FARTHER SOUTH.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTIME HOURS...THE NAM/EC IS
HINTING AT SOME STRATOCU...HOWEVER THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS. THESE CLOUDS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT. THE 11-3.9MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY/OBS SHOW AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATUS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. WILL BUMP UP THE
CLOUDS NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE BY MORNING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP. THIS
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE COLD...BUT THE SUN SHOULD HELP WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. THOSE OUTDOORS HALLOWEEN NIGHT WILL NEED TO
BUNDLE UP WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S WITH LOWS
DROPPING TO 21 TO 28.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP FOR SATURDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S...THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

60S ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY
NIGHT. RECENT LONG RANGE MODELS ARE MOVING THE PRECIPITATION OUT
ON MONDAY QUICKER...SAVE FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MAY BE ABLE TO
LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE. AN IFR TO MVFR DECK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO QUICKLY DROP SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN



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