Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 040047
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
747 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS SPARKED A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO
HOLD TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE A STRONGER
TROUGH DIGS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM SWRN MN THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN SD AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THIS IN THE WARM SECTOR...SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S POOLING ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WE WILL BE LACKING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATED ANY REAL ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY JUST A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS.

THE SFC FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
STATIONARY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH. AT
THE SAME TIME..THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO EJECT IMPULSES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND TOWARD EASTERN COLORADO. STORMS MAY BE
ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE SEVERE RISK WILL
INCREASE WITH PEAK HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG SFC
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 35 TO 40 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON
AS WELL. ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IOWA HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKED IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY MID DAY GIVING THE
REGION A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE BASE MOVES THROUGH NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO. STRONG WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THETA-E AXIS WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH PW`S AROUND 1.25 TO 1.50"
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

AN ACTIVE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOK ACTIVE AS WELL
WITH PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 729 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND STALL OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT KLNK THROUGH 10Z....AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 16Z.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA AFTER 18Z ON MONDAY. KOFK IS
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 05/00Z. HOWEVER CLOUD CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO OVC050 BY
04/21Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...SMITH


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