Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 311103
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
603 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GFS/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ADVERTISING A GENEROUS
WARM UP ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY.

FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS MORNING PER WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO BE
SHORTWAVE TROF JUST OFF THE PAC NW COASTLINE...WHICH SHOULD BE
MOVING ASHORE SOMETIME TOWARD NOON. WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY
INTENSIFY WITH 500MB HGT FALLS OF 160M SPREADING OUT ACROSS MT
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE DAKOTA AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT BNDRY WILL BE QUICK IN NATURE AND SHOULD REACH THE CWA BY
EARLY WED AFTN.

WITH STRONG BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADV UNDERWAY...INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP THRU THE AFTN HOURS WITH
CONVECTION LIGHTING UP ALONG THE FRONT. LATEST GFS IS PRETTY MUCH
FOCUSING INITIAL SEVERE THREAT...DEEP LYR SHEAR/STRONG
INSTABILITY...OVER THE SRN CWA DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT STORM ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NORTH-SOUTH
THEN THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AT
THAT TIME...SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WILL SEE
GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY EVENTS END.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GFS AND ECM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL EVOLVE TO
NEAR ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS UP THRU NEXT MONDAY AT
WHICH TIME THE GFS/ECM LAY QPF OVER THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN THIS...TOKEN
20S SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...MEX/ECMMOS METEOGRAMS SIMILAR SHOWING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
UNDER 12KT. HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTH WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 25KT
RANGE ARE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN



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