Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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612 FXUS64 KOHX 020550 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Showers continue to dot the radar especially east of I-65 at the moment. Additional shower activity will continue overnight before beginning to shut off from west to east Sunday morning. Looking at the current mesoscale environment, there`s not much in the way of CAPE over our area. Looking west of the Tennessee River though, 500-800 J/kg of MUCAPE is present. Some of that instability will slide east into our area through the nighttime hours. This could lead to a rumble of thunder or two. Wind profiles are weak with effective bulk shear less than 20 kts. Strong or severe storms are not anticipated. The forecast is on track and only minor hourly PoP adjustments were made. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday Night) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 It`s a showery day across the mid state. It`s rather cool with temps in the 60s. A mildly unsettled pattern appears to be ahead through the short term period. Having said that, today appears to be the most active of the days as a marginal risk is currently in place. There does appear to be some reasonable shear although capes are near zero right now. As activity decreases some by afternoon instability could pick up a bit with perhaps some storms developing later. I would not worry too much about it at this point. Again, the upcoming pattern looks mildly unsettled. A series of weak shortwaves will traverse the area through Monday night. Pops however will continue to run on the low side after today. Only modest instability will pair with weak shear to keep us in the general risk of storms. The 35KT mags at 850 mb today will drop to near 10 kts for the next 2 afternoons. Capes will rise to near 1500 j/kg the next two afternoons. Forcing/organization is weak on Sunday with micro ridging attempting to surface. A little higher with the GFS pops on Monday afternoon with shortwave proximity improving. NBM not biting on this, however, as the Euro deflects from this theme as well. At any rate, qpf totals through Monday night look like up to 1 1/2 inches far west to 1/2 inch east. For the near term temps, it will be just a touch on the warm side with lows mid 60s and highs mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 In the extended forecast, a stronger frontal system and associated shortwave is slated to push through on Wednesday afternoon. Thus, we will see our shower and tstm chances increase by mid week. Good instability is showing up but with just weak to moderate shear. The system is not synoptically well formed and strong organization is isolated. No outlook for now. Drier air will work in behind the system for the end of the week. For the extended temps, it will continue to run a degree or two above normal until the end of the week. At that time, we will cool down to a little below normal. GFS appears to be a little overly aggressive with the troughing. Will lean toward the Euro/NBM solution. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Addressed best two hour time interval for tstms impacting SRB/CSV 02/10Z-02/13Z. A mixture of MVFR/VFR ceilings, with ceiling erosion CKV/BNA/MQY by 02/16Z and SRB/CSV by 03/00Z. Slow veering of southerly sustained sfc winds 5-10 kts to northwest thru 03/00Z, with backing back to light south by 03/06Z. With overall expected scattered nature of shwrs, went with VCSH remarks except periodic prevailing shwrs with IFR/MVFR vsbys with ceilings varying between MVFR to IFR ceilings 02/06Z-02/08Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 84 66 89 68 / 30 10 20 20 Clarksville 83 64 87 67 / 20 10 20 20 Crossville 75 60 81 63 / 70 20 20 10 Columbia 84 64 87 68 / 30 10 20 20 Cookeville 77 62 83 65 / 60 20 20 10 Jamestown 76 61 82 63 / 70 30 20 10 Lawrenceburg 82 64 86 68 / 30 10 20 20 Murfreesboro 84 64 87 68 / 40 10 20 10 Waverly 84 64 87 68 / 20 10 20 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Reagan SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....JB Wright