Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 222153
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
353 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Continued to keep the flood watch valid thru 25/12Z(Sun,
6 AM CST). Best chance of rainfall continues to look to
be across NW portions of mid state, generally north of
I-40 and west of I-24. Best chance of heavy rainfall across
this region now looks to be on Sat night. However, episodes of
rainfall will occur across this region thru at least Sat night
despite light to mdt rainfall expected to only occur. SPC placing
most of the mid state in a slight risk of svr tstms for late
afternoon thru at least the evening hrs on Sat. Main concern
continues to be damaging straight line winds in this low CAPE
but high shear expected environment. Dry conditions during the
second half of Sun thru the first part of next work week provided
by a frontal passage that ahead of it will cause the potential of
svr wx on Sat. By the mid portion of next work week, another
round of potentially heavy rainfall across the mid state region
during the second half of next work week. So, all in all, this
swly upper level flow pattern aloft and overall unstable wx
pattern looks to persist thru the next seven day period. Temps
will continue to be seasonably warm also during the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Cigs will vary MVFR/IFR this afternoon as scattered showers and
areas of fog occur along a stalled frontal zone. Winds will be
light and variable, except S near 10KT at CSV. The front will lift
northward late tonight and cigs will become mostly MVFR.
Improvement to VFR may occur by the end of taf period as S winds
become gusty to 20KT, except CKV is expected to stay MVFR with
greater coverage of showers.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      59  79  62  77  55 /  20  40  50  60  90
Clarksville    54  73  58  74  49 /  50  70  60  70  90
Crossville     58  73  59  73  55 /  20  20  40  50 100
Columbia       64  77  62  75  54 /  20  20  40  50  90
Lawrenceburg   63  77  62  74  54 /  20  20  50  50 100
Waverly        56  74  61  74  50 /  50  60  40  70 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Cheatham-Davidson-
Dickson-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Lewis-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Stewart-Sumner-Williamson.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........13



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