Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 102333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
533 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE
WEST, BUT THE FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE WE ENJOYED EARLIER TODAY ARE
QUICKLY VANISHING. A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUICKLY
SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAVING RIDDEN DOWN A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO BUILD DOWNWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE-HALF INCH, SO
AN ADVISORY WON`T BE NEEDED WITH THE NEW SNOW. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY BY 06Z AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
WARM CONSIDERABLY TOMORROW WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR
COPIOUS MELTING.

AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BEHIND THE FRONT,
A STRONG 1044+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP
PUSH EVEN COLDER AIR INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, MAKING FOR A FRIGID
WEEKEND.

THE NEXT ACTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY COME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
IN THE COLD SECTOR BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME, GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MOSTLY SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH QPF & SNOW RATIO GRIDS SUGGESTING GENERAL AMOUNTS OF
1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE BULK OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

THE ECMWF PAINTS A MUCH DIFFERENT PICTURE, WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE ARKLATEX EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PUSHING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 00Z TUE.
WITH THE LOW TRACK TOO CLOSE TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR THE COLD AIR
TO PENETRATE THIS FAR SOUTH, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW UNDER THIS
SCENARIO WOULD OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT. SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING OF THIS POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER EVENT IS LOW, ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS DO SHOW MEASURABLE SNOW
AFFECTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE, JUST AT DIFFERENT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING ALONG NW FLOW IS PRODUCING SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT CKV AND BNA. THESE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
REDUCED VIS AT CKV TO 3/4SM. HAVE ADDRESSED THE REDUCED VIS IN
TEMPO GROUP AT CKV AND BNA. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT CSV DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALL THREE TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........10/REAGAN
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL


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