Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 040453
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1153 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...
06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR BR
WILL DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR FROM
10-12Z. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. ON TUESDAY...ISOLD TSRA WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z...BUT COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN WNW AROUND 08KT
ON TUESDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MENTION OF ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION
FOR THIS EVENING. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...
AND WIND DIRECTION/SPEED GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST AND BELOW
AFTERNOON FORECAST REASONING CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 847 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

UPDATE...
TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
GRIDS. CURRENT TEMPS IN LINE WITH FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOW VALUES.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AND BELOW FORECAST REASONING CONTINUES TO
BE ON TRACK.

31


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
FAVORABLE CAP/CAPE RATIO FINALLY BEGINNING TO EMERGE WITH JUST A FEW
STORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. DEWPOINTS WILL INCH UPWARD ON TUESDAY AND WILL THEREFORE
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. BY TUES AFTERNOON...WE
WILL SEE A DEVELOPING IMPULSE UPSTREAM. THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THAT
REASON...POPS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS MID WEEK TIME FRAME.
CAPES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH SO AS TO EVOKE A MARGINAL
RISK OF ORG SEVERE CRITERIA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...HOTTEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...WE WILL SEE TEMPS
COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES. IT WILL...HOWEVER...BECOME MORE HUMID WITH
THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE THREAT.

IN THE EXT FCST...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR
EAST AND WE WILL SEE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR RETURN. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS...HOWEVER...STILL LEAN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR AFT
DESTABILIZATION EACH DAY. WILL GENERALLY INCLUDE LOW 20/30 POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES SHOULD LEAN TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS.
HOWEVER...BY THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED...STRENGTHENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LEAD TO MORE IN THE WAY OF A WARMING TREND THAN
THE EXT MODELS ARE HINTING AT. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 90S RANGE BY THE END OF THE EXT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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