Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 271714
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1214 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR BNA/CKV/CSV. HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED NW OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FAIR WX
AND NNE SFC WINDS. MAINLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD.

13

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CHILLY TEMPS THIS MORNING WITH READINGS DOWN IN THE 40S. SKIES ARE
CLEAR BUT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE NOT VERY FAR AWAY OFF TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SUNK DOWN ALONG GULF
COAST. UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO AT 04Z.
ENERGY ASSOCATED WITH UPPER LOW HAS FIRED OFF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AS CAN BE SEEN IN LATEST 500
MBAR VORTICITY FIELD AND LATEST INFRARED SATELITTE LOOP OVERLAYED
WITH LIGHTNING DATA. UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTLINE TODAY THAT WILL WORK EASTWARD AND BE
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE BY 12Z TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BE INITIALLY
ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF RAIN AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS
PUSH SHOWERS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTH GEORGIA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH GEORGIA UPPER LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AND BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER IN KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN TRYING TO END ON THURSDAY
BUT UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND WANTS TO HANG BACK OVER TENNESSEE SO
THERE MAY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY GETS KICKED EAST. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY...AS SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MID STATES WEATHER.

AS FOR TEMPS THIS WEEK...LOOK FOR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK.

BB

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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