Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOHX 222312
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
612 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER DRY HIGH
PRESSURE. LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY OF THIS
SHALLOW FOG WOULD AFFECT TERMINALS. TUESDAY WILL BE SKC WITH NE
WINDS AROUND 7KT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT NOW WELL SOUTH OF MIDDLE TN AND IS PUSHING THROUGH SRN
PORTIONS OF BOTH AL AND GA. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE WITH
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. SAT IMAGERY SHOWING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA AND UPSTREAM. THE SFC
HIGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PREVAILING AIRMASS IS BUILDING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD TONIGHT. CURRENT TOVER VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BUT THE
CONTINUED TREND OF SLOWLY LOWERING DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z. THUS ONLY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. THEREFORE...WILL DISCUSS THE TEMP TREND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. RIGHT NOW...EXITING UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BE REPLACED
WITH HIGHER HEIGHT VALUES AND UPPER RIDGING. SO...DESPITE SOME COOL
MORNINGS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES...THE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE WILL WORK IN COMBINATION WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS TO PROVIDE
LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS. IN FACT...LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS OF AROUND 30 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THIS WEEK. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...WE ARE ENTERING INTO THE DRIEST TIME
OF THE YEAR AND THIS UPCOMING PATTERN IS SHOWING THAT.

ANYHOW...IN THE EXTENDED FCST...WE DO HAVE RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK BUT NEARLY CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEYS THIS
WEEKEND. SFC RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL ELONGATE FROM
NW-SE AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH TO
BRING IN MORE MOISTURE. THE EURO MODEL IS IN AGREEMENT SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS WELL. CAPE RETURN IS
NOT INDICATED AND SHOWALTER VALUES LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE AS WELL.
THUS...WILL KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE AS SHOWERS.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...THE 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWINGS WILL COME TO AN
END AS THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE DRIVE UP THE MIN TEMPS WHILE DROPPING
THE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

THATS A WRAP...ENJOY THE LOWER HUMIDITIES EVERYBODY! EXCEPT FOR THE
FORESTRY FOLKS. WE`LL TRY TO GET THEM SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.