Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 272122
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
322 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...

The upper level shortwave that brought scattered showers to the
Mid- State earlier today has now moved east, and allowed sunshine
to return to northern and western parts of our area. Where the
sun was shining, temperatures pushed into the lower and middle
60s. However, in the cloudier areas, early afternoon temperatures
were only in the upper 40s to middle 50s.

South winds will bring an increase in surface dew points tonight,
as another shortwave moves in from the west. By Tuesday morning,
dew points will be in the upper 50s in areas near the Tennessee
River. Showers will become likely over our western counties by
late tonight, with mainly just scattered showers further east.
Showers will be likely area-wide between 12z and 18z tomorrow,
but diminish from the west during the afternoon. Can`t rule out a
few thunderstorms tomorrow. However, instability will be limited,
and convection will be elevated in nature.

The atmosphere destabilizes to the west of our area late Tuesday
and Tuesday evening, back over Arkansas and extreme western
Tennessee, and 850mb jet cranks up to 50 to 60 kts. Thunderstorms
will likely form near the Mississippi River as we head into
Tuesday night, with storms likely to train northeastward in close
proximity to our northwestern counties. As a result, believe
isolated severe storms will be possible over our northwest Tuesday
night, and SPC has placed that part of Middle Tennessee under a
slight risk for severe storms in its Day2 outlook.

As a cold front sweeps in on Wednesday, all of Middle Tennessee
will be at risk for isolated severe thunderstorms. SPC has placed
us in an Enhanced Risk area, and this weather system remains
quite vigorous as it crosses the Tennessee Valley during the day.
It keeps an attendant 60+kt 850mb jet, and a squall line will
produce the possibility for isolated severe storms with damaging
winds. As stated by SPC, LEWPs and bowing segments will be
possible, as well as maybe an isolated tornado or two.

Thunderstorms diminish from the west Wednesday afternoon, with
just some lingering precipitation along the Cumberland Plateau by
early Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...

Dry weather is forecast for Thursday through Sunday, as high
pressure prevails. A weak cold front sweeps through on Friday.
However, showers are expected to remain north of our area, up
across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.

Right now, it looks like our next chance for rain rolls in early
next week, on Monday and/or Tuesday, as yet another cold front
rolls in.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...Earlier showers have already moved east of Middle
Tennessee, with a dry, VFR afternoon and evening in store. Strong
southerly flow is keeping winds up today, but should diminish
somewhat by 00Z. Another shortwave will move out of the Gulf Coast
states and into Middle Tennessee overnight, with showers
developing toward morning and possible thunderstorms later in the
day Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      55  72  65  73  38 /  50  60  70  80   0
Clarksville    53  72  64  68  35 /  70  60  70  80   0
Crossville     49  65  61  67  33 /  50  70  50  90  30
Columbia       54  71  65  72  36 /  40  60  70  80  10
Lawrenceburg   54  71  65  73  37 /  40  70  50  90  10
Waverly        54  73  65  69  37 /  70  60  70  80   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........08


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