377
FXUS64 KOHX 161703
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1203 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

KOHX radar is getting a break today with only some Cu and cirrus
around this morning. Breaks in the clouds are expected to become
more numerous this afternoon. Rain and storm chances will return
tonight as upper ridging moves east and is replaced with
southwesterly flow. Showers and storms will move in close to dawn.
There should be a break in the showers and storms in the morning
with a chance of more showers of storms in the afternoon and into
the overnight hours as a broad trough moves toward the area. As
far as severe potential on Friday, the potential looks low with
marginal shear and CAPE values less than 500 J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The trough will slow its eastward progress Friday night with the
troughing influences lingering on Saturday with more showers and a
storm or two. With the clouds and showers, highs on Saturday
should stay in the 70s across the the area. The trough axis will
move east Saturday night with northerly flow on Sunday. A couple
of sprinkles are possible on Sunday mainly along the plateau.
Upper ridging will build in from the west Sunday night with
southerly return flow on Monday and Tuesday. With that,
temperatures will warm well into the 80s on Monday and Tuesday,
and we have the potential of touching 90 for the first time this
year on Tuesday. A cold front will approach Tuesday night or
Wednesday with showers and storms. Behind the front, temperatures
will be slightly cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Conditions will slowly improve to VFR over the next few hours as
clouds break. Should see a period of VFR conditions through at
least 11Z before additional SHRA/TSRA moves into the area. Some
uncertainty with timing an location, so have only included vis
impacts for CKV/BNA/MQY at this time. Should see cigs drop near
the end of the current TAF period.

Will have some variability in winds, eventually settling on S/SE
and remaining below 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      65  77  64  79 /  30  80  70  80
Clarksville    64  74  63  78 /  40  80  70  70
Crossville     58  72  60  74 /  10  80  70  90
Columbia       63  74  63  78 /  30  80  70  80
Cookeville     61  73  61  74 /  10  80  70  90
Jamestown      58  73  60  74 /  10  80  80  90
Lawrenceburg   64  74  63  77 /  20  80  60  80
Murfreesboro   63  76  63  78 /  20  80  70  80
Waverly        63  73  63  76 /  40  80  60  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Adcock