Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 251123
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
623 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED KCKV THIS
MORNING...BRINGING IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS. PRECIP LOOKS TO IMPACT
KBNA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR KCKV AND KBNA...AND EVENTUALLY KCSV IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
LOOK TO KEEP LOWER MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE...BUT
PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR KCKV AND KBNA LATER TODAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. KCSV WILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES CARRY
INTO THE LATE EVENING BEFORE DECREASED COVERAGE OCCURS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UP INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AS HIGH AS 1.8 INCHES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITHIN THIS PLUME THROUGH THE
MORNING AS IT GRADUALLY SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
STATE...WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE WEST HALF THIS
MORNING...BUT LOWERED THEM TO CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY
MOVES GENERALLY EAST OF I-65. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS ANY
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SHOOT UP QUICKLY...BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SEEMS MOST REASONABLE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO IN THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS
TODAY...BUT NO SEVERE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. 00Z
GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER ROUND OF EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MID STATE ON
TUESDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING WHICH LEADS TO
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE. MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING THEN MOVE EASTWARD...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY ALBEIT
SLOWER. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS MORNING
ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY DEPLETE INSTABILITY AND NEGATE ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BUT NOT MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECT IN HWO.

REST OF FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT LEADING TO A WARM WET PATTERN WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY. GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS FROM MIDWEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS AND SOMEWHAT LOWER
POPS...WITH BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR IN THE 80S/60S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

06




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