231
FXUS64 KOHX 051714
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1214 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The morning sounding from OHX is rather underwhelming. There is
some instability, but not a great deal. The surface-based CAPE is
just 333 J/kg, with a Lifted Index of -2, and the 700-500 mb lapse
rate is a measly 5.2 C/km. The column is nearly saturated all the
way up, and without any sort of dry layer aloft, we just aren`t
getting steep enough lapse rates to produce any meaningful
instability. The 0-3 km helicity is 136, but this is due mostly to
speed shear. There is very little directional shear present. The
Precipitable Water is a robust 1.77", which gives us a PWAT+ value
of 148 (observed PWAT is 148% of the daily mean value), and puts
us well above the 90th percentile for June 5. Anyway, once this
initial line of showers passes through Middle Tennessee, the HRRR
shows very little activity until later tonight with the passage of
the actual surface boundary. After that, nothing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High pressure will keep us mostly sunny and less humid through
Friday. What looked to be a sunny weekend not so long ago is now
looking like a rainy one, especially Sunday. On Saturday, a weak
shortwave will bring some additional cloudiness with low rain
chances to Middle Tennessee. And on Sunday, an east-west oriented
surface boundary will sag southward through the mid state and
bring even better rain chances. Fortunately, QPF values on
Saturday and Sunday are very low. In other words, these will be
nuisance showers rather than washouts. As a result of tonight`s
frontal passage, temperatures will cool off several degrees
beginning Thursday night and Friday, with relatively cool weather
lasting at least until the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Showers are exiting the eastern part of our area and we will see
dry conditons for the afternoon. A line of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will push in from the west after 00z and will push
east through 07z. A brief period of MVFR/IFR conditions will be
possible under any showers or thunderstorms. Low cigs 010-025
build in behind the showers locally down to 007 for KCSV. Cigs
will return to VFR during the morning tomorrow with VFR conditions
then expected. Southwest winds up to 10-15 knots this afternoon
becoming light out of the west tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  88  63  83 /  60  10   0   0
Clarksville    66  86  59  82 /  40   0   0   0
Crossville     64  80  56  75 /  80  40   0   0
Columbia       68  87  59  82 /  60  10   0   0
Cookeville     66  81  57  77 /  80  30   0   0
Jamestown      65  81  56  75 /  80  40   0   0
Lawrenceburg   67  86  60  80 /  60  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   68  87  59  82 /  70  20   0   0
Waverly        66  86  59  82 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Mueller