Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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287 FXUS64 KOHX 051039 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 539 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 159 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A series of upper level disturbances will transverse west to east across mid state region as morning hours progresses with a more defined upper level shortwave passage expected as afternoon hours progress. In an examination of several CAMs solutions, North American model, and global models, slight differences in convection development timing and movement noted, but they all point toward the continuance of an atmospheric setup like we have had across mid state region last couple of days supporting scattered to numerous convection. A few thunderstorms could reach strong thresholds producing gusty strong winds as afternoon MUCAPE values generally range 1,000 J/KG to 2,000 J/KG depending on what particular model leaned toward. Any severe thunderstorm potential limited by not the most robust mid level lapse rates and lower atmospheric shear values. With a consensus of model sounding derived PWAT values as high as 1.8-2.0 inches, some of these stronger storms certainly could produce at least brief heavy rainfall resulting in localized flooding concerns. Highs today will be around seasonal normal values. As upper level troughing influences push eastward as tonight progresses and quasi zonal northwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly established, and a surface cold front to our northwest moves southeastward into mid state region during overnight hours tonight, expecting best chances of showers and thunderstorms to shift eastward of I-65 Corridor Region as evening hours progress, with most convection limited to Cumberland Plateau Region by daybreak on Thursday. Lows tonight will continue to be on the mild side for the most part, generally ranging in the mid 60s. As dry northwesterly flow becomes a little more entrenched and a secondary now dry cold front approaches from the northwest, a seasonably warm day will be in store for our area with some showers and thunderstorms lingering through morning hours across Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Thursday will be in low to mid 80s, around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 159 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Thursday night through Saturday morning will highlight some drier and slightly cooler air working into mid state region as surface high pressure influences to our northwest influences our areas weather pattern. Highs by Saturday afternoon will be on the seasonably cool side ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. As Saturday afternoon progresses though, moisture will once again work into mid state region resulting in isolated convection for locations west of I-65 Corridor Saturday afternoon. Enough moisture will be hanging around our area Saturday night through Sunday Night along with now some embedded upper level disturbances in northwesterly flow aloft to support development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at times. Coolest day of entire forecast period will be Monday with highs generally only in mid to upper 70s with lows Monday Night seasonably cool mainly ranging in mid to upper 50s. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected across southern and eastern portions through Monday afternoon. Upper level ridging influences will build across our area as Monday night into Tuesday progresses, with a slight warmup expected with highs on Tuesday ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Two rounds of SHRA with VCTS will spread across airports this TAF period, first this morning/afternoon then again this evening/overnight. VFR conditions will prevail but MVFR cigs are expected for a few hours this morning, then MVFR/IFR vis/cigs at SRB/CSV at the end of the TAF period. South winds will increase during the day with gusts to around 20 knots, then decrease and veer to westerly by the end of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 85 68 87 62 / 90 70 0 0 Clarksville 81 64 85 59 / 60 20 0 0 Crossville 79 63 80 55 / 80 80 30 0 Columbia 84 67 87 60 / 80 60 0 0 Cookeville 81 66 82 57 / 80 80 20 0 Jamestown 80 64 80 56 / 80 80 20 0 Lawrenceburg 84 67 86 60 / 80 70 10 0 Murfreesboro 85 66 87 59 / 80 80 10 0 Waverly 81 65 85 59 / 80 30 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Shamburger