297
FXUS66 KOTX 100018
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
518 PM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system will pass today with showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms. Limited shower chances will be found again Tuesday
and toward the weekend, especially around the mountains. Expect
breezy to gusty winds much of the week, but especially Tuesday and
again toward Friday. Above normal temperatures will continue
though much of the week, with cooler temperatures by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today and tonight: Precipitable water between 140-180
percent of normal feeding into the weather disturbance moving
through for the rest of today and into tonight has enough
instability and forcing with the evolution to continue mention of
thunderstorms, in addition to surface based convection for the
rest of today potential remains for some overnight as dynamics
associated with the disturbance passage allows for the elevated
nocturnal forced variety. 0-6km average winds suggest continued
general storm motion from southwest to northeast at around 15 to
25 mph. /Pelatti

Monday to Sunday: the Inland NW will be in a progressive pattern,
with passing shower chances and occasionally breezy conditions
with temperatures vacillating between near normal and above
values. A weak ridge builds in Monday, with one weak wave exiting
through north Idaho. That will bring limited shower chances there,
largely near and north of Sandpoint. Otherwise expect some low-
end breezy conditions with gusts of 15-25 mph, highest toward the
Waterville Plateau.

The next wave moves in on a 100kt+ jet Tuesday, bringing the
chance for showers over the Cascade crest and northern mountains
largely in the afternoon. Limited shower chances or sprinkles will
also skim over the northern basin through Spokane/C`dA area in
the afternoon. Winds will be stronger Tuesday afternoon with that
shortwave and jet nosing over the region. Gusts of 20-40 mph,
locally to 45 mph, are forecast. The stronger of those are
forecast for the lee of the Cascades to the Waterville Plateau
into the Upper Columbia Basin. This may have impacts on any new or
existing wildfires, although RH values are not expected to remain
a bit above critical thresholds.

Wednesday and Thursday the area dries out. Winds will remain
breezy Wednesday then are a bit lighter Thursday. Then between
Friday and Sunday another system moves into the region, with
another period of breezy conditions especially late Friday into
Saturday. Shower chances return to the mountains as well. Some
models bring broader shower chances but confidence leans toward
mostly mountain showers.

Temperatures will be above normal through Tuesday, then drop
below normal Wednesday before rebounding into Thursday before
cooling down into next weekend. /Solveig


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: An weather system is currently moving through the
region. This will bring a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers to
the region through 09Z Monday with isolated thunderstorms
possible. Main concern with thunderstorms will be gusty outflow
winds with gusts of 25-35 kts, lightning, brief downpours, and
small hail. The probabilities for thunderstorms to move over a TAF
site are low (less than 25% probability) but do have mention of
mention of showers, which carries higher confidence. Some MVFR fog
and stratus may form Monday morning in response to today/tonight`s
expected rainfall along GEG-SFF-COE corridor between 12-15Z. It
will burn off quickly with morning sun. Winds will increase late
morning, early afternoon on Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Low confidence for the MVFR fog and stratus that may form Monday
morning. /JDC
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  81  56  82  47  75 /  20   0   0  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  54  77  53  79  46  73 /  20   0   0  20   0   0
Pullman        52  75  53  78  46  71 /  20   0   0  10   0   0
Lewiston       60  85  58  89  54  82 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       48  81  49  80  41  77 /  30   0   0  20   0   0
Sandpoint      52  75  51  76  45  71 /  30  10   0  20   0   0
Kellogg        56  74  56  75  49  69 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     55  88  55  86  47  81 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      58  85  59  79  50  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  88  54  85  47  81 /  20   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$