735
FXUS64 KOUN 061115
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
615 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

With a surface ridge centered over the eastern-third of Oklahoma
early this morning, winds are light and variable to calm.  Dewpoint
depression are 1 to 2 degrees at best, so will likely see shallow
ground fog and/or a heavy dew. A few areas of mid-level clouds
have developed across northern and central Oklahoma and
are generally drifting southward. There may be just enough
forcing just before and after sunrise for weak elevated showers.
If showers develop, they will move slowly to the east/southeast
and stay across mainly north central Oklahoma.

Later this afternoon, models are fairly similar in pushing a cold
front into northern and central Oklahoma.  During peak heating 4 to
6 pm, a few thunderstorms may develop along the boundary with
perhaps better chances over the higher terrain in the Texas
Panhandle/far west central Oklahoma. Although the flow will not
be particularly strong, 30-35 knots around 500mb and decent
temperature/dewpoint spreads will support strong wind gusts.
Expect a few storms will develop, but less certain along the front
in central Oklahoma. Storms that form should move south/southeast
around 15 mph.

A modest low-level jet over the Panhandles into northwest Oklahoma
may aid in the development of elevated showers late overnight into
early Friday morning.  Severe weather is not expected if convection
occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Easterly surface winds early Friday will become southerly and
increase during the day, especially across western Oklahoma where
gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible.

Friday afternoon and evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop
well to our west and north.  There is a chance that some of these
storms may develop over/or move across the northern third of
Oklahoma, during the late evening and overnight.  A possible MCS
over Nebraska and Kansas should remain north and east, but not sure
about an associated outflow boundary.  Regardless, another cold front
is expected to enter northern Oklahoma during the afternoon.  Models
are not overly excited about development along the front in northern
Oklahoma. However, upslope flow should result thunderstorms over
eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico.  This is expected to
organize into an MCS and move across at least the northern half of
Oklahoma during the overnight/early Sunday morning.  Heavy rainfall
and damaging winds are certainly possible, with maybe a hail risk on
the western edge of the complex.

How far the cold front/outflow boundary will be by Sunday afternoon
is uncertain.  For now will go with the idea of it being across
northern Texas.  This should limit afternoon thunderstorm chances
across much of the area.  Overnight Sunday into Monday, warm air
advection north of the frontal boundary may result in additional
storms.  Perhaps another MCS arrives late Monday into Tuesday as
a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Southwest winds this morning with clear skies. A weak cold front
will work south through the northern half of Oklahoma today into
this evening. Some afternoon and evening convection along this
boundary could impact sites from OKC/OUN west to CSM and LAW. Hail
and strong wind gusts may accompany these storms. Winds behind the
front will shift to the north and northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  67  89  74 /  20  20  10  10
Hobart OK         96  68  95  75 /  20  30  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  96  70  94  75 /   0  10  10   0
Gage OK           93  64  95  70 /  20  30  20  20
Ponca City OK     86  64  88  72 /  10  20  10  30
Durant OK         92  69  90  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30