300
FXUS64 KOUN 050509
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1209 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Main short term focus will storms late this afternoon into the
overnight period, bringing both severe and flooding hazards.

Storms are expected to initiate near a cold front / dryline triple
point in west-central Oklahoma, then expand south and eastward
through the evening. Continued moisture return and at least some
diurnal warming will result in a highly unstable environment; this
combined with adequate deep layer shear (~30 knots 0-6 km bulk
shear) will result in an initial large to very large hail risk. Any
discrete storms along the front will also have a low tornado risk.

Low level shear will initially be low, ramping up with the low level
jet around 00-02z. As storms form into a complex this evening
(transitioning to a heavy rain and damaging wind threat), this will
support MCS maintenance down through south central Oklahoma. This
complex will likely take a similar path to last night`s complex,
hitting areas that are already plenty saturated (1 and 3 hr flash
flood guidance ranges from less than an inch to 2 inches through
this area). Thus, a flood watch will be issued for parts of central
and south central Oklahoma for tonight.

Storms should exit the area by around 4am.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

With the passage of Tuesday`s cold front, most of the moisture
should be pushed out allowing for a couple of dry days in the
forecast.

Ridging will impinge from the southwest late this week, though that
won`t completely keep out the possibility of northwest flow. Low
rain chances (20-30%) return Thursday night and continue through
early next week, mainly during the overnight periods (it`s MCS
season).

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

TSRA will continue to affect central and southern Oklahoma
terminals (and KSPS) first few hours of forecast period along with
MVFR cigs/vis restrictions. Will continue MVFR cigs past 12Z
across southern areas where moisture will stay plentiful behind
weak frontal boundary. VFR expected all areas by and after 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  93  68  87 /   0  10  10  20
Hobart OK         68  97  68  92 /   0  10  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  68  96  69  92 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           68  94  65  93 /   0  10  20  20
Ponca City OK     65  88  63  87 /   0  10  10  10
Durant OK         66  93  69  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ025>032-040>043-
     047-048-051-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...11