464
FXUS63 KPAH 061113
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
613 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and less humid airmass today and even more so on Friday.

- Unsettled weekend ahead with rain chances returning. It looks to
  be mostly cloudy along with below normal temperatures.

- After a cooler and dry start to next week, guidance is
  trending back above normal later in the week and we may
  approach 90 by next Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The upper level pattern will feature longwave troughing across the
Upper Midwest into the Northeast U.S. today through early next week
while ridging will migrate from the Southwest U.S. into Texas. This
places the pah cwa in northwest flow most of this time until the
primary trough axis shifts south across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-
Atlantic early next week.

An initial cold front is making passage across the region early this
morning, with a noticeable lowering of dewpoints behind it. Areas of
fog have developed, some of which is locally dense. Will need to
monitor this, but most guidance suggests visibilities improving by
12z as the lower dewpoints continue funneling in. A secondary
boundary will pass through the region this afternoon and evening,
with even lower dewpoints moving into the region tonight through
Friday. Some of the CAMs are spitting out a few light showers along
the front this afternoon in the Ozark Foothills, but this appears
more likely to remain west of our cwa. Temperatures will remain
above normal today (mid to upper 80s) and slightly above on Friday
(low to mid 80s).

This weekend looks rather unsettled as weak disturbances in the
northwest flow move through. It will likely feature quite a bit of
cloudiness which will help contribute to the below normal
temperatures. Highs only the mid 70s to near 80 are expected. Seems
to be a pretty good signal for a decaying MCS to move into the west-
northwest cwa by 12z Saturday and transition across the region
through the day. However, coverage of precip is uncertain and by
afternoon we may be largely dry with only a healthy amount of cloud
cover. Additional showers and storms seem likely to develop Saturday
evening and overnight which then continue into Sunday. Placement of
this second round of convection may be positioned largely across the
south half of the cwa. However, models continue to vary regarding
exact placement so this is subject to change.

Guidance is in rather good agreement bringing the primary trough
axis through on Monday and pushing it east by Tuesday. This should
keep our region dry during this time. After a spike in humidity this
weekend, our drier airmass returns with dewpoints back into the 50s
early in the week. 850mb temperatures dropping to around 10C should
translate to highs remaining in the mid 70s to around 80 on Monday,
with a slight uptick on Tuesday.

Ensembles suggest that the upper level ridging to our west will
build across the center of the country by later in the week. This
will allow our temperatures to jump back to above normal, well into
the 80s by Wednesday or Thursday and possibly around 90 by next
Friday or the weekend of June 15-16. Could very well be our first
prolonged heat wave of the year for Father`s Day weekend. NBM
probabilities give us a 50-80% chance of experiencing 90 degree
temperatures for that time period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Areas of fog, some locally dense, is impacting mainly those
along and south of the Ohio River this morning. This should
largely lift by 13z or shortly thereafter. Mainly clear skies
the rest of the period, although FEW-SCT cu is possible this
afternoon. W/NW winds will become sustained around 10 kts today
with gusts of 15-20 kts, then drop to around 4-6 kts tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP