881
FXUS63 KPAH 062115
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
415 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and less humid airmass today and even more so on Friday.

- Unsettled weekend ahead with rain chances returning. It looks to
  be mostly cloudy along with below normal temperatures.

- After a cooler and dry start to next week, guidance is
  trending back above normal later in the week and we may
  approach 90 by next Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A weak disturbance is leading to a few showers over far southern
Missouri, but the trajectory of this activity and dry air near
the surface suggests any accumulating precip is unlikely over
the PAH portion of SEMO this afternoon. Otherwise we are
warming up into the mid to approaching upper 80s with dewpoints
mixing down through the day as drier air advects in from the
northwest.

Our next system of note appears to be Saturday through Sunday.
A decaying MCS is progged to move into the area from the
northwest late Saturday night into Sunday. Modest southerly
moisture return may help the remnants of this system, with some
weak frontogenetic forcing, gen up a few showers or storms
during the day on Saturday. Fgen forcing gets a little stronger
overnight Saturday and into Sunday as a surface cold front
starts to push in from the north. With 3-6 km lapse rates at
around 6.5 C/km there is a fairly good consensus on about
800-1000 J/kg of elevated instability to work with Saturday
night. With PWATs 1.7 to 1.9 rainfall rates will likely be
efficient, but I do wonder if coverage may be a touch overdone
on the models given the relative lack of forcing and
instability.

Moisture scours out behind the front leaving warm and mostly dry
conditions for the early part of the week. The GFS returns a
little bit more moisture ahead of a weak shortwave trough on
Tuesday. The ECMWF sends the front further south and keeps us
dry for Tuesday and through the rest of the week. Tend to prefer
the drier ECMWF solution for now based on the orientation of the
upper flow behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A cold front has just made its dry passage across the terminals.
There are some diurnal cu that will dissipate by issuance time,
and there is an area of mid clouds in SEMO, associated with a
short wave making passage, but satellite trends suggest these
will stay south of the KCGI airfield. In the wake of the front`s
departure, high pressure settles into/across the TN Valley.
After a clear sky/light wind tonight, should see west to
northwesterlies develop lightly again tmrw, along with a chance
for SCT-BKN diurnal bases in the 5-7K FT AGL VFR layer.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$