914
FXUS61 KPHI 101927
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
327 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to ridge across the area into the middle
of the week. Meanwhile, an upper trough swings across the
northern Middle Atlantic region. Later this week, a cold front
crosses the region. Fair weather follows the front and remains
into the weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The majority of the area lies underneath the broad upper trough over
the Northeast as surface high pressure builds across the Great Lakes.
As a result, scattered fair weather clouds have developed over much
of the region today with temps mostly in the 70s to around 80 degrees.
The base of the trough axis will begin to approach the area from
the west tonight while being accompanied by some weak energy passing
through the region. This is depicted and supported by most hi-res
guidance where a few isolated to scattered showers are expected
to develop to the south and east of Philadelphia. A few rumbles
of thunder are possible as there will be a bit of elevated instability
around, however this will be extremely limited in nature. Otherwise,
to the north and west of Philadelphia and outside of any showers,
skies will become mostly cloudy. Low temps are expected to be in
the 50s to low 60s for most, with upper 40s in the Poconos.

For Tuesday, mostly cloudy skies early should give way to some
clearing by late morning. However, another round of increasing clouds
is expected during the afternoon as the upper level low will be located
due north of the region and the base of the trough axis passes by
late in the day. Guidance has been persistent showing that a few
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by late
morning and early afternoon. The greatest likelihood of occurrence
will be near the coast where convergence of winds along the seabreeze
will be greatest across the Delmarva and New Jersey. For locations
in E Pennsylvania, skies will likely just remain mostly cloudy
during the afternoon. High temps are expected to be in the 70s for
most with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper trough/low will have moved away and weakened by midweek.
Surface high pressure will remain across the region with fair weather
expected from Tuesday night into Thursday. Temperatures will begin
the period near normal, but end up above normal by Thursday with
highs Thu in the mid/upper 80s most areas with some low 90s around
the metro Philadelphia area. Except for Delmarva, the humidity levels
will still not be too uncomfortable Thu, but the heat/humidity will
be increasing over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Hotter temperatures are expected for the end of the week as upper
ridging builds across the Eastern part of the country. The westerlies
and storm track will remain close enough to keep the extreme heat
away from the region, but above normal is one theme for Friday and
into the weekend. Friday will feature the warmest readings with widespread
90 to 95 degree temperatures for the area. It will also arrive with
higher humidity levels too with dew points in the 60s for most spots.
Relief from the heat and humidity will be found near the shore with
highs there in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Along with the summer-like warmth Friday comes the only noticeable
chance for showers/tstms during the long term. A cold front
drops through the area creating lift needed to produce the rains.
Pops are in the slight chance/chance range for now with the higher
percentages for the N/W areas. Severe weather may be possible with
some CAPE/shear present (mostly NW areas).

Following the frontal passage Fri night, drier and slightly cooler
air arrives from the Great Lakes region. While high temperatures
will still be above normal Sat/Sun, humidity levels will be more
comfortable. No rains is expected this weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR with SCT/BKN clouds. W-NW winds near 10-15 kt
with gusts near 18-20 kt possible at times. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with BKN CIGs by 04-06Z at all terminals. NW winds
early will become N to NNE winds by early Tuesday morning between 3-
8 kt. A few isolated showers may impact KMIV/KACY/KILG overnight so
have continued to mention VCSH for these terminals. Elsewhere, no
significant weather is expected. Moderate confidence overall.

Tuesday...VFR expected. Skies may scatter out in the morning, but
anticipate another round of BKN CIGs during the afternoon.
Winds will vary depending on the terminal with KMIV/KACY likely
remaining E winds due to weak onshore flow. All other terminals
should become NW winds by the afternoon. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms possible. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wed/Thu... VFR much of the time. Haze possible Thu.

Friday... Lower CIGS/VSBYS possible in showers/tstms.

Saturday... VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through Tuesday. West-southwest
winds around 10-15 kt for the remainder of today will diminish and
become north-northeast winds around 5-10 kt overnight. East to
northeast winds around 8-13 kt expected on Tuesday. Seas of 1-3
feet. Fair weather expected outside of a few isolated showers or
thunderstorms possible late tonight into Tuesday.

Outlook...
Generally sub-SCA conditions from Tuesday night into early
Friday with fair weather. Later Friday, SCA gusts and near 5ft
seas are possible with scattered showers/tstms. Fair weather
Sat/Sun.

Rip Currents... Rest of today, west winds around 10 mph
combined with wave heights of 1-2 feet and short to medium
period swells will result in a LOW risk of rip currents.

For Tuesday, north morning winds around 10 mph and southeast
afternoon winds at the same speed, combined with wave heights of
1-2 feet and short to medium period swells, will result in a
LOW risk of rip currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OHara
NEAR TERM...DeSilva
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...DeSilva/OHara
MARINE...DeSilva/OHara