038
FXUS61 KPHI 070200
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1000 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front slows/stalls over the region tonight. Very weak high
pressure to the southwest begins to build in Friday, holding some
influence Friday night through Saturday. Cold front approaches
Saturday night and looks to pass through Sunday. Another cold front
may pass through Monday. Weak high pressure builds in for
Tuesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms have tapered off late this evening and
the previous Severe Thunderstorm Watch was allowed to expire.

For the rest of tonight, our first of two cold fronts will be
moving through the region after midnight tonight. A few isolated
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible
overnight as the front moves through, but the severe potential
will be rather low. Behind the first cold front, dew points
will begin to drop into the lower 60s by daybreak. For areas
that either get rain this evening or did not dry out from
rainfall Wednesday night, patchy fog may develop prior to
daybreak Friday.

The second cold front passes through the region Friday afternoon.
The base of an upper trough with strong shortwave energy will pass
through northern Pennsylvania and the Hudson Valley in New York
state. For the far northern zones of the local forecast area, mainly
the southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northern New Jersey,
isolated to scattered showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, may
develop in the afternoon. It will be much drier as surface dew
points will fall into the 50s, and highs will be in the low to mid
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Summary...Fairly benign short term looks to be on tap. Generally no
precipitation expected Friday night through Saturday. Showers
possible Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms more possible
Sunday with approach and passage of a cold front. Our region is not
outlooked for any excessive rainfall by WPC or any severe weather by
SPC for the short term.

An upper-level low looks to be centered north of the region Friday
night. This upper-level low will move eastward with time as another
lobe of upper-level low pressure swings down from the northwest and
over the Great Lakes region. A new upper-level low looks to be
centered just north of the northeastern CONUS for Sunday as a
trough-axis approaches our region from the northwest.

At the surface level, very weak surface high pressure looks to be
centered over the Mississippi River Valley Friday night. This weak
high looks to move eastward with time and be centered more over the
southeastern CONUS for Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front looks to
approach from the northwest Saturday/Saturday night. The cold
front looks to cross through our region during the Sunday time
frame.

Our region will look to feel the influence of that weak surface high
Friday night through Saturday. With the surface high being weak to
the south, and broad upper-level low pressure and shortwave energy
being in place, some isolated pop-up showers should not be ruled out
entirely for Friday night or Saturday. Generally though, things
should be fairly benign weather wise during these periods; NBM
supports no PoPs for this time frame. We will see PoP chances
increase from the northwest later Saturday night into Sunday due to
the cold front. Timing of cold frontal passage is not very certain
at this point given the overall pattern. Chance for showers and
thunderstorms should be anticipated for Sunday due to the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper-level trough looks to stall over the eastern CONUS Sunday
night into Tuesday while weakening. Though a more zonal upper-level
pattern looks to take hold over the CONUS Tuesday onwards, this
decaying and weak upper trough may continue to linger over the
eastern CONUS into Thursday.

The upper-level pattern suggests weak high pressure will mainly
influence the region at the surface level through much of the
long term; though another cold front may pass through around
Monday. However, with surface high pressure remaining weak and
an upper-level trough remaining through much of the time frame,
a bit of an unsettled long term looks to be on the horizon.
Though unsettled, nothing all that impactful looks to be on tap
at this point.

Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) due to lingering
upper-level trough, possible shortwave energy, and weak high
pressure unable to suppress development. Temperatures right
around average through the term.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Prevailing VFR. Perhaps an isolated shower, but it
will remain mostly dry for the rest of tonight. More confident
that fog will not impact terminals since there wasn`t much rain
earlier in the day, but still cannot completely rule out some
patchy, shallow fog. SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20
kt, becoming W around 5 kt tonight. Moderate confidence.

Friday...VFR. An isolated SHRA may pass over KABE in the afternoon.
W winds increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. High
confidence overall.

Outlook...

Friday night through Tuesday...Generally VFR. Some sub-VFR
conditions possible Sunday/Sunday night. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind gusts are just below 25 kt and seas are just below 5 ft. Will
go ahead and cancel the Small Craft Advisory that was in effect for
the ocean waters. A pre-frontal trough passes through this evening,
followed by a cold front tonight. Another cold front passes through
on Friday. Thunderstorms this evening may be strong to severe with
damaging wind gusts and heavy rain.

SW winds 15 to 20 kt will turn W 10 to 15 kt tonight. Winds increase
back up to 15 to 20 kt on Friday, though gusts should remain just
below 25 kt.

Seas will average 3 to 4 ft.

Outlook...

Friday night through Tuesday...No marine headlines anticipated.

Rip Currents...

Gusty west winds will develop on Friday, ranging from 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph. With breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet, a
medium period swell, and a New Moon, there is a MODERATE risk for
the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at
New Jersey beaches, but a LOW risk at Delaware beaches.

On Saturday, the effects of the New Moon will not be as impactful,
and west winds will be much lighter. There will be a LOW risk for
the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at
New Jersey and Delaware beaches.

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers.
Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the water. For
specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Largely spotty minor coastal flooding, but could see more
widespread minor coastal flooding across Cape May and
Cumberland counties in NJ and Sussex county in DE. A Coastal
Flood Advisory was hoisted for those locations. Astronomical
tides will be lowering, so the threat for widespread minor
coastal flooding will continue to diminish with the next several
high tide cycles.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for NJZ021-023-
     024.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for DEZ003-004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...MJL/MPS
SHORT TERM...Wunderlin
LONG TERM...Wunderlin
AVIATION...MJL/MPS/Wunderlin
MARINE...MPS/Wunderlin
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...