124
FXUS65 KPIH 100823
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
223 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night.
Main impact of short term will be some lingering showers and
thunderstorms in the eastern highlands this morning and early
afternoon. Storms will be only isolated and mot nearly as strong
as on Sunday. The showers and isolated storms will push east as
system exits this evening. Will be dry tonight through Tuesday
night as dry zonal flow sets in tonight through Tuesday night.
Will have some 10 to 20 mph sustained winds in the Snake Plain
both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will be
cooler today but still above normal. Highs generally in the 70s
mountains to around 80 in the Magic Valley and Snake River Plain.
Lows tonight in the 40s mountains and 50s valleys and will have
some warming Tuesday with highs well into the 80s in lower
elevations with near 90 in the Eastern Magic Valley. Will have
mild lows again Tuesday night with 40s mountains to mid to upper
50s valleys.
GK

.LONG TERM...Wed through Sun night. With 5800+ meter 500mb heights
over the forecast area, there is little chance for significant
precipitation. Through Fri afternoon, the clusters indicate dry
conditions as a given. On Sat, just over half of the solutions show
a breakdown of this upper level ridge, which could trigger some dry
thunderstorms anywhere over the forecast area. But there is a solid
40-plus percent chance of the heat and dryness continuing. For Sun,
the threat goes up to 67 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
as this upper level trough continues its eastward trek and with some
solutions has the upper level trough axis overhead of the forecast
area.

Winds appear to be elevated starting Fri afternoon with the approach
of this upper level trough. This continues into the weekend with the
trough continuing close.

This positive tilt trough just does not appear to be much of a
threat. The warmest day should be Thu with temperatures returning to
near 90 degrees for the lower Snake River plain, eastern Magic
Valley and the valleys in the southern hills. Only cloud cover
levels off temperatures on Fri, then the trough finally brings in
cold air to drive temperatures to the upper 70s in the Snake River
plain on Sat and lower 70s for the Snake River plain on Sun. Only
the final day in this period is below normal. Messick

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA and clouds will wrap up from west to east as
the skies clear behind yesterday`s cold front. By 10/12Z KSUN should
clear, by 10/15Z it`s KBYI`s turn, and by 10/18Z KIDA and KPIH
follow. Clouds and TSRA should linger in the KDIJ vicinity until
early evening, around 11/03Z. Wind will increase in the afternoon
and peak during the early evening for the three valley airdromes,
light elsewhere. Messick

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The passage of last night`s cold front will cool off
temperatures. Humidity will be much lower in the afternoon as skies
clear and the precipitation ends. As upper level high pressure
returns, look for warming to resume Tue. By Wed, afternoon humidity
below 15 percent should return to lower elevations in the Salmon-
Challis and the Arco Desert. Gusty afternoon wind will continue.
Messick

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING remains in effect for the Teton River near Driggs
as small streams/creeks and the main stem river continue to run
high. Minor flooding is being observed on the main stem river and
is expected to remain at that level through midweek, aided by
additional snowmelt from the Tetons and Big Holes. Further
downstream along the Teton River near St. Anthony, that gage has
reached action stage and is expected to remain elevated through
midweek as well. Several other rivers across the CNTRL Mountains
are also seeing diurnal increases with the Big Lost River at
Howell Ranch currently hovering around action stage. Along the
Snake River, increased flows out of Palisades Reservoir has also
led to the Snake River near Heise gage climbing up to action stage
and it is expected to stay there for at least the next week.
MacKay

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$