Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
894 FXUS65 KREV 040916 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 216 AM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A hot and generally dry week is in store for western Nevada, northeast California and the Sierra. Max temperatures will be 10-20 degrees above average for June. Meanwhile, low chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon hours from Wednesday through the rest of the week for the Sierra and vicinity. && .DISCUSSION... The upper level system that brought some cooling and extensive cloud cover yesterday is on its way out of the region. Therefore, here comes a high amplitude upper level ridge that will bring the advertised heat for the rest of the week. Currently, nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows high clouds slowly leaving the area. As the upper high moves in mostly clear skies take over with only some low level clouds developing in the afternoon generally in the vicinity of area mountains. Max temperatures this afternoon rise to 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Therefore, highs for the valleys and lowlands will be in the 80s, while in the mountains they will be in the 60s at the highest elevations and 70s mid-slopes. Wednesday through Saturday will be quite hot for June. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be 10-20 degrees above normal as the upper high settles across western US. Afternoon temperatures will be in the 90s valleys and lowlands, and 70s-80s mountains. Portions of northern Washoe north of Pyramid Lake, Pershing and Churchill counties have a 10-20% chance of reaching 100F on Wednesday and Saturday and 30-70% on Thursday and Friday per the NBM. If you didn`t notice, Thursday and Friday will be the hottest days of the week. Reno has a 10-20% chance of reaching 100F Wednesday through Saturday. It appears we will be mostly in the mid-upper 90s. The other concern mid-week and beyond is showers and thunderstorms. The main activity will be in the Sierra, especially south of Lake Tahoe with a 10-30% chance Wednesday and Thursday. However, there is plenty of uncertainty as ensemble members of the HREF, GEFS and ECMWF have quite the spread from nothing to scattered convection. However, noticing the hot weather that will result in decent instability during the afternoon hours. Plus there is some moisture with precipitable water between 0.5-0.75 inches. Therefore, I`m confident in the development of storms each afternoon. However, how much precipitation will fall is uncertain, especially when there are some significant dewpoint depressions in excess of 30 degrees near the surface. Thus, if anything develops expect some gusty and erratic wind gusts. Convection looks minimal on Wednesday, but increases for Thursday. I wouldn`t rule out a few showers and storms reaching western NV valleys each afternoon. Models start to diverge beyond Sunday with the approach of the next upper level trough. However, the trend of warm temperatures and afternoon convection appears to persist. At least, there are good indications of slightly cooler weather. -Crespo && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday afternoon. Skies will be mostly clear with few low level clouds this afternoon. Winds will be generally light and VRB in the AM and overnight, then becoming northerly AOB 10 kts. Low chances for -SHRA/-TSRA return on Wednesday after 21Z. Hot conditions starting on Wednesday bring density altitude concerns for the rest of the week. -Crespo && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$