Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 210945
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND BY THE END
OF THE WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND CROSSED THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLIER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WAS
SPOTTY WITH SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FROM THE TAHOE WEST SHORE
NORTHWARD RECEIVING UP TO 0.40 INCHES WHILE OTHER NEARBY
LOCATIONS RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG I-80 UP TO 0.30
INCHES OR MORE IN NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. A DRY AND COOL DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 IN NEVADA
VALLEYS AND IN THE 50S IN THE SIERRA. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY THIS MORNING, BUT WITH A DECREASING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WEDNESDAY, BUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND JET ALOFT
MOVES INTO OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WERE TRENDED STRONGER, TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM MODEL, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES. FOR THURS-THURS
NIGHT, THE JET MOVES NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL NV. MEANWHILE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO REACH THE WEST COAST AND BRING FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
THOSE AREAS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SET
UP AND IN HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE NORTH. FOR NOW, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 WERE INCREASED WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THU-THU
NIGHT. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE DRY AIR
SOUTH OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. JCM

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE NOW SLOWER, SPLITTING THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS IS A
DIFFERENT MODEL SCENARIO COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS AND THUS WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY
CREDENCE. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE MUCH LIKE OUR
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS AND THE FORECAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT
CONTINUITY. BAND OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS TROUGH OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AND
PUSHES HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND
70S AREAWIDE AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S IN LOWER VALLEYS.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MOST PROMINENT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. THE
SLOWER SPLITTING SOLUTIONS WOULD NOT BRING PRECIPITATION UNTIL
SAT-SAT NIGHT AND WOULD FAVOR BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO MONO
COUNTY AS WELL. SO WE DID EXTEND SOME POPS FURTHER SOUTH IN CASE
THIS SPLITTING OCCURS, BUT WE DID NOT INCREASE THE NUMBERS BEYOND
THE CHANCE CATEGORY. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER WITH THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUN-MON WITH 50S
AND 60S. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND DEPENDING ON CLOUDS,
MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A FREEZE SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY MORNINGS.
HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST
FLOW ALOFT USHERING IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. SURFACE AND RIDGE
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AS A MOIST JET PUSHES INTO THE
PACNW COAST. A RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
FURTHER SOUTH BEING AN INCREASE IN RIDGE WINDS BEGINNING WED NIGHT.
HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




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