Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 092228
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
228 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP POLLUTANTS AND MAY CREATE
HAZY CONDITIONS AS WELL. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER CA/NV
BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS MAY CONTINUE TO BRING HAZY CONDITIONS TO VALLEY LOCATIONS
EACH MORNING, WITH PATCHY OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
MARTIS VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH MIXING EACH AFTERNOON TO
PREVENT A STEADY BUILD-UP OF POLLUTANTS, AND AS A RESULT AIR
QUALITY SENSORS HAVE NOT INCREASED INTO THE UNHEALTHY CATEGORIES.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AFTERNOON MIXING
INCREASES A BIT EACH DAY.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHUNT IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE OF HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ALSO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND. MODEL
SIMULATIONS SHOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT, JUST ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MODOC COUNTY AND FOR
WESTERN LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES. JCM

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

OTHER THAN A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH LINE
FROM A SYSTEM AIMING AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO NEAR AVERAGE NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH SATURDAY, OTHERWISE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN CHARGE.

SATURDAY, THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR REMAINING
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES STATES, HIGHS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOVE AVERAGE (AND REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ELSEWHERE) OVER FAR
NORTHWEST NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR VALLEYS WITH
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 7-DAY PERIOD, THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN FOR MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW A FAIRLY FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BRIEFLY COMBINING WITH
MOISTURE FROM A CUTOFF LOW FAR OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
COULD BOOST PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM
ALONE. AS USUAL, THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBILITY AS DETAILS ARE LIKELY
TO CHANGE AS WE HOME IN ON THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN ANY CASE, THE
RIDGE DOES LOOK TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE PLUMES LOOK UNLIKELY UNTIL LATER IN
THE MONTH. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA, NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. VALLEY WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
(AOB 8 KTS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH RIDGES BLOWING SW-W UP TO 20 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

AS FAR AS FOG, THE USUAL FOG SUSPECT THAT IS THE MARTIS VALLEY/KTRK
MAY SEE PATCHIER FOG TONIGHT AS IT HAS DRIED OUT AND WARMED OVER
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE, ANY FOG SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DIRECTLY AFFECT TERMINALS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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