Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 010954
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING OVER THE
100+ DEGREE TEMPS WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. AREAS SUCH AS
LOVELOCK AND FALLON MAY SEE HIGHS EXCEED 105 DEGREES TODAY AND
TOMORROW WHICH HAS PROMPTED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE GENERAL
ROUTINE OF YESTERDAY WITH INITIATION ACROSS THE SIERRA MAINLY OVER
MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS POINT WHERE NEW STORM
FORMATION WILL BE DICTATED BY STORM OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS WHICH ARE
ERRATIC AND UNPREDICTABLE. A DCAPE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY
WITH ROUGHLY 1000-1400 J/KG NORTH OF HWY 50 AND GENERALLY BELOW
800 J/KG SOUTH OF HWY 50. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING OUTFLOW WINDS
NORTH OF HWY 50 TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER (UP TO 50 MPH) WHICH WILL
PROVIDE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR NEW STORM INITIATION. AS WITH
THE STORMS YESTERDAY, FLASH FLOODING, STRONG WIND GUSTS, SMALL
HAIL, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND EVEN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THURSDAY AND WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER
INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT.
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE START WITH DURING THE DAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT SOME IF ENOUGH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FROM SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS ALSO HOLDS TRUE FOR FRIDAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING THIS
WARM WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ESPECIALLY WITH
THE LOWERING LFCS THAT WILL RESULT FROM THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
WEEKEND BEING ACTIVE WITH DRYING FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS/EC AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PW REACHING OVER 1
INCH SATURDAY. GFS/EC ALSO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE THINGS. BIGGEST THREAT
WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS. ONE DOWN SIDE COULD
BE THAT CLOUD COVER MAY BE EXTENSIVE CUTTING INSTABILITY, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY, A LITTLE DRYING TO TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE WAVE, BUT PW WILL
STILL BE NEAR 1 INCH. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUED SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINING
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
SHOWING DRYING S-SW FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FLOW IS NOT
STRONG SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE OUT. HAVE
GONE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY ALL AREAS WITH CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY...FIRST DUE TO CLOUD COVER SAT/SUN THEN COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT 40 PCT
AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND LESS THAN 20 PCT
ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS...SMALL
HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY THURSDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
FRI-SUN DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY
     NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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