Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 201046
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
246 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
MORE PERSISTENT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE AS MODELS CATCH UP WITH
OBSERVED WEATHER. HAD TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
SIERRA DOWN THROUGH THE TAHOE BASIN INTO WESTERN NEVADA ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE IN BRINGING MORE EXPANSIVE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MEAGER TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS SINCE THIS MECHANISM TENDS TO BE MUCH MORE WEAKLY
FORCED. THEREFORE, ONLY AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AS STRATIFORM SNOW BREAKS INTO MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE WITH UP TO TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE. SINCE SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN HIGHER OVERNIGHT, REMOVED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SURPRISE VALLEYS WHERE ONLY A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD OCCUR TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, COOLED HIGHS
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER LIMIT
INSOLATION.

OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST. GENERALLY
WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA ALONG
THE SIERRA FRONT AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FOR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY, GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 TO 45 MPH THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT CUTTING OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHILE TAPERING WINDS AS WELL. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL REMAIN WITH WESTERN NEVADA SOMEWHAT ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. SURFACE INVERSIONS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL
SUPPORT DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY EARLY IN THE WEEK. BOYD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, HOWEVER MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE
SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS AT MEDIUM FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS AS A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA NORTH OF MINDEN-FALLON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL GIVE WAY ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW NEARS THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SURFACE GUSTS
TO 45 MPH CLEARING OUT ANY HAZE/POLLUTANTS IN THE VALLEYS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE NEVADA VALLEYS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES.

THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE CHRISTMAS EVE SYSTEM, KEEPING
NEARLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION OVER OREGON AND IDAHO. THE ECMWF STILL
PUSHES A COLD FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING BELOW 4500 FEET ACROSS
THE TAHOE BASIN AND WESTERN NEVADA NORTH OF MINDEN TO FALLON.
PRECIPITATION MAY START TO MOVE INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA DURING
CHRISTMAS EVE. THOSE TRAVELING CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
DUE TO SNOW OVER THE SIERRA PASSES AND ON THE NEVADA VALLEY FLOORS.
AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES, A COLD NORTH SURFACE FLOW COULD KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS DAY IN THE 20S AND 30S. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE ENOUGH TO
DECREASE THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AT KTRK AND KTVL TO 20% OR
LESS. FOR THE NEVADA TERMINALS, NEARLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING. BRONG

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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