Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 252209
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
209 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SIERRA SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AN MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THANKSGIVING, THEN
WILL BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY COULD CLIMB TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
VALUES. THE RECORD HIGH AT THE RENO AIRPORT FOR NOV 27TH IS 70
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1946.

FIRST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE JET
PASSES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. BEST CHANCES
ARE OVER PLUMAS AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY, WHERE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO 6000-7000 FEET.
LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.50 INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE FOR PLUMAS AND
WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, THEN FALLING OFF TO 0.10 INCH OR LESS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 395. LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH THE DONNER SUMMIT AREA, BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST FOR THE SATURDAY-
SUNDAY TIME FRAME, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING, THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT ESTIMATES OF SNOW LEVELS ARE 6500-7000
FEET FOR NORTHEAST CA, AND 7000-8000 FEET NEAR THE SIERRA FROM
TAHOE SOUTHWARD SO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER PASSES.

SUNDAY MAY NOT BE AS WET AS LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAIN LOW
OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 130W, WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER EASTERN
NEVADA AMPLIFYING A BIT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BACKING OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, AND THE MOISTURE FEED
RETREATING FARTHER NORTH INTO NORTHWEST-NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES INLAND, ALTHOUGH TIMING IS A
BIT SLOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE DATA. THE POTENTIAL IS
INCREASING FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST AND IN NORTHEAST CA, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN SHOULD ALSO SPREAD INTO WESTERN NV AROUND THE
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL BELOW 6000
FEET BY MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO
THE TAHOE BASIN, BUT THE AIR MASS IS LESS LIKELY TO BE COLD ENOUGH
TO BRING MEASURABLE SNOW INTO WESTERN NV VALLEYS BELOW 5000 FEET.
HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS STILL RATHER LOW FOR THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR BEING PULLED INTO THIS STORM AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
THE SNOW LEVELS.

FOR NEXT TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE WINDING DOWN AS
THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU THANKSGIVING
DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER CA-NV. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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