398
FXUS61 KRLX 011611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1211 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry through this evening, rain chances increase late tonight
into Sunday. Will see a break on Monday with unsettled weather
returning by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Saturday...

Upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure continues
to shift east through the remainder of the day today into this
evening allowing a plume of Gulf enhanced moisture to shift east
into our forecast area this evening into Sunday.

Through the evening and first half of the overnight any radar
returns will probably struggle to translate to accumulating rainfall
at the surface with initially dry low levels and light precipitation
rates. Instability will begin to build toward daybreak and peak late
Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon with increasing chances for
accumulating rain, and perhaps some pockets of heavier rain by late
in the morning Sunday given precipitable water values near 1.5
inches, deep but skinny instability profiles, and deep warm cloud
depths. Given recent dry conditions and the fully greened state of
vegetation, not expecting much in the way of water issues unless a
heavier downpour persists over a more built up area.&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

This period starts with a weak surface low passing just toward
our north. This feature will drag a weak frontal boundary
through which will be enough to support shower and thunderstorm
activity, however looking at soundings with the lack of shear
and instability, we are likely looking at sub-severe storms.
PWATs have increased along with long skinny CAPE coming into
the equation which will support more rainfall and possibly heavy
downpours and thankfully DCAPE is very low which will decrease
the chances for downbursts.

The frontal boundary will pass by nightfall and then from there
on weak high pressure both at the surface and loft will build
in from the west for a short period on Monday. Unfortunately the
weak high pressure will allow for some diurnal activity as far
as shower and storms are concern. This will likely be confined
to the mountains due to the elevated heat effect although we
cannot rule out a possible storm elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

For Tuesday, this day did a complete 180 degree switch from
yesterday with going from being unsettled to fairly quiet
weather with surface high pressure staying in the vicinity along
with stronger ridging aloft. This equates to quieter weather
for most of the day. However some activity may occur during the
afternoon and evening hours and mostly confined to the
mountains.

Models are in better agreement on timing with the next system
to affect the area. This feature will bring a cold front
associated with a parent low traversing across the Great Lakes.
This potent low will drop the frontal boundary down and slowly
pass it through as the potent low becomes stronger and slides
south not progressing toward the east, therefore slowly inching
toward the area and not away.

Activity ahead of the aforementioned cold front will take place
on Wednesday and then frontal passage will take place on
Thursday if everything cooperates. Models then have the low
dipping down and affecting the area with wrap around flow which
will keep unsettled weather in the area for the weekend,
according to models, which has another frontal boundary wrapping
around through the area on Saturday, but at that point models
diverge. Decided to go with blended model guidance toward the
end of this period. This equated to very high POPs for Wednesday
and Thursday with thunderstorm activity possible around the
clock. Friday will not be a washout, but will have chances of
showers and chances of diurnal thunderstorms.

Southerly flow will keep warm moist air pumping into the area
from Tuesday through Thursday promoting temperatures above
seasonable by about 10 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours as generally
virga or very light precipitation begins to spread over the region
tonight. Cloud bases will progressively lower to near MVFR near or
after daybreak with chances for heavier showers including at least
some potential for embedded thunder increasing toward the end of
this TAF period. Overall confidence in thunderstorms affecting any
given field is rather low with fairly meager instability through
18Z, so will code only -SHRA for now.

Winds generally southerly less than 10KTs, except gusty and erratic
near any showers.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Isolated thunderstorms possible prior to
18Z.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday afternoon, then again at times late Tuesday into
Thursday. IFR also possible in post-rain stratus, and perhaps
fog, late Sunday night and early Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JZ
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JP