874
FXUS61 KRLX 201814
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
214 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure system will provide hot and mostly dry weather
into midweek. A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms late
Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances linger into late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

Aside from a few possible showers or a rumble of thunder over
the higher terrain this afternoon, hot and dry day is expected,
with only fair-weather cumulus noted around the area. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. It will remain dry and
calm overnight, with partly to mostly clear skies over the CWA.
Lows will generally range from the lower 50s in the mountains to
around 60 degrees in the lowlands, but many valleys are likely
to decouple and dip at least a few degrees cooler, with some
valley fog expected again tonight. Tomorrow will be another hot
and mostly to partly sunny day, with lower elevation highs again
towards the upper 80s, and mountains getting into the 70s and
lower 80s. A few 90s will be possible. Some mountain showers and
storms seem a bit more likely tomorrow with a weak shortwave
moving through the upper-level ridge, and generally speaking, a
few more clouds appear possible tomorrow as well as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Monday...

A high pressure system will provide for mostly dry weather on
Tuesday, although a couple of afternoon showers or
thunderstorms can not be ruled out in the northern and central
West Virginia mountains. Afternoon temperatures will be well
above normal for this time of year, with some lowland locations
hitting 90 degrees.

The warm weather will continue on Wednesday. A southerly wind
in advance of the next system will increase moisture across the
area Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will allow for an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.

A cold front will then push through the area on Thursday,
providing additional showers and thunderstorms along with more
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 AM Monday...

A cold front will stall just south of the area on Friday. An
upper level short wave will then interact with the front and
cause a surface wave to move along the front. Models do have
some differences in the timing and location of wave, leading to
a lower confidence in forecast details. Confidence in the
forecast drops even more on Sunday, as model solutions further
diverge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

VFR conditions are generally forecast through the period for
most sites, except a period of prevailing light fog was put in
to EKN late tonight through tomorrow morning. Patchy fog could
also impact CKB, CRW, or HTS, but confidence was not high enough
to put it in the prevailing group. Will need to monitor BKW for
shower potential this evening, and BKW and EKN for shower or
t-storm potential tomorrow afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing or coverage of showers and t-storms
in and near the mountains tomorrow may vary from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms late
Wednesday into Thursday with a cold front.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/RPY
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...FK