Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
716 FXUS66 KSGX 162035 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 135 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A persistent marine layer will continue into next week with night and morning low clouds expected each day, and limited clearing at the coast. Steady high temperatures are expected through the weekend, with cooling for early next week. Slight warming next Tuesday and Wednesday will be followed by further cooling late next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... At 1 PM, low clouds have cleared from southern San Diego County and southern portions of the Inland Empire, but are holding steady across north county and Orange County. Further clearing is expected across inland areas over the next several hours, but clouds are expected to redevelop in areas that clear by this evening. Southern California will remain in a fairly stagnant pattern over the next several days as an upper-level low sits to our west and multiple lows move through the Pacific Northwest. Persistent "May Gray" will continue across the coast and valleys each night and morning with limited clearing expected at the beaches. Patchy drizzle will be possible at times west of the mountains in the early morning hours. Minimal changes in high temperatures are expected through Sunday; highs will top out 2-5 degrees below normal across the coast, valleys and mountains, and up to 5 degrees above average in the deserts. The low to our southwest will become an open wave and absorb into the mean flow, likely passing over the region Monday. This will lead to an uptick in gusty winds over the mountains and deserts, and lead to slight cooling-region wide. Monday will likely be the coolest day of the week, with highs topping out 3-7 degrees below normal at the coast and in the deserts, and 5-10 degrees below normal in the valleys and mountains. Slight warming is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. Another deep trough moves down the West Coast by the middle of next week, continuing onshore flow and a deep marine layer over Southern California. && .AVIATION... 161950Z...Coast/Valleys...BKN-OVC020-030 tops 4000 feet through 23Z except SKC-SCT030 in the some of the valleys and in southern San Diego County including KSAN. Low clouds spreading back inland 00-04Z tonight and filling the coastal basin through Friday morning with bases 1500-3000 feet and tops to 4000 ft. Patchy drizzle 10-16Z Friday. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear today and tonight. West winds gusting 30-40 kt through mountain passes into adjacent deserts after 23Z. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions through Monday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...EA AVIATION/MARINE...Moede