Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
594 FXUS66 KSGX 172145 AAA AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service San Diego CA 245 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Updated Synopsis .SYNOPSIS... A coastal eddy will keep a deep marine layer in place through Thursday with night and morning coastal clouds clearing in most areas each afternoon. Skies will be clear over the mountains and deserts. Over the weekend a strengthening ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest will bring hot weather back to Southern California. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... A trough over the western part of the country will continue pleasant weather through Thursday. Gusty west winds are occurring this afternoon across the deserts with wind gusts 25-35 MPH, which will continue into the evening hours. South and southwest winds are present at the coast as a coastal eddy spins offshore. Partial clearing near the coast this afternoon may not last very long, as clouds will push back inland over the next few hours. Latest guidance shows most areas west of the mountains see more clouds through the early Tuesday morning hours. Minimal change in the weather will occur Tuesday through Thursday with a steady deeper marine layer the trough holds across the western states. There will also be less in the way of wind across the mountains and deserts. We can expect plentiful 70s and 80s along and west of the mountains with highs in the 90s and low 100s in the high and low deserts respectfully. A 591 DM high in northern Mexico with push northward into our region by Friday into the weekend. This will provide warmer weather with temperatures 5 to locally 10 degrees above average across the Inland Empire, mountains, and deserts, while the shallower marine layer keeps the coastal areas moderated. Still some uncertainty on how it will become but NBM output paints highs peaking near 115 degrees in the low deserts and upper 80s and low 90s across higher elevations. Slight variations of these temps may change in the coming days. Ensemble model guidance shows a large ridge across the southern U.S. expanding into the desert southwest by early next week, which would continue the hotter than normal weather by this time. && .AVIATION... 172021Z...Coast/Valleys...Mainly SCT low clouds with bases 1400-1800 ft MSL and tops to 2800 ft MSL including portions of the inland valleys. Vis 3-6 SM where clouds near terrain. Low clouds locally broken KSLI-KSBD but mainly sct after 17/22Z. Low clouds redeveloping along the San Diego County coast 18/00 - 18/03Z and spreading inland and north overnight with bases around 1500-2000 ft MSL and tops to 2500 ft MSL. Confidence in 18/01Z return of low clouds at KSAN per the TAF is moderate. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through this evening followed by SCT clouds at/above 20,000 ft MSL tonight into Tue morning. Gusty west winds continue across the mountains and deserts, strongest this afternoon and evening when gusts 25-40 kt are expected with isolated gusts 45-50 kt below the San Gorgonio Pass. MOD-STG up/downdrafts over and east of the mountains through this evening. Winds slowly weaken tonight into Tue morning. && .MARINE... Northwest wind gusts up to 20 knots will be possible in the outer waters this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday. && .BEACHES... A combination of a west swell of around 5-6 feet/9-10 seconds and a south swell of around 2 feet/17 seconds will bring surf of 3-6 feet along with a high rip current risk through today. Swells and surf will lower Tuesday. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through 7 PM this evening. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM PDT this evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. PZ...None. && $$ 245 PM UPDATE...Moede PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...Small