965
FXUS64 KSHV 131950
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
250 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Dry weather and gradually warming temperatures will continue to
be the rule through the short-term period as upper-level ridging
moves eastward across the Southern Plains and eventually directly
over the ArkLaTex by daybreak Saturday. Even though the surface
ridge will be weakening, there will still be plenty of subsidence
to keep very light winds and mostly clear skies in place. This
should also enhance the radiational cooling tonight allowing most
places to cool into the 60s. Most of the model guidance remains
several degrees too warm for overnight lows. We should rebound
nicely again tomorrow with temperatures warming well into the 90s.
The models have also trended a couple of degrees too cool for
daytime highs, especially in the urban areas. Overall, persistence
is the general word to characterize the short-term period.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Upper-level ridging will begin to move east of the area on
Saturday. As a shortwave trough ejects from Colorado into the
Central Plains, a surface lee trough should become better
established bringing southerly surface winds back to the forecast
area. As a result, warm and moist air advection should resume from
the Gulf of Mexico helping to enhance the warming trend. This
should be enough to push daytime high temperatures into the upper
90s, possibly right to the century mark, across much of Louisiana
Saturday and Sunday. Moisture levels will still be somewhat meager
on Saturday, and winds speeds should increase to between 5 and 10
kts in most areas on Sunday. This should be just enough to keep us
below Heat Advisory criteria, but I can`t rule out peak heat
index values climbing very near 105 degrees F in a few isolated
locations this weekend.

As the flow aloft transitions south or southwesterly on Sunday,
this should also begin to bring a plume of tropical moisture
northward. The onshore flow should result in at least a chance for
diurnally-driven sea breeze convection south of a line from
Lufkin, to Natchitoches, to Jena beginning Sunday afternoon. This
pattern should repeat itself daily through at least the middle of
next week. The highest and most widespread rain chances should be
Monday afternoon when southerly flow is at its strongest. By
Tuesday and Wednesday, surface winds become more easterly in
response to a potential tropical system in the Bay of Campeche,
which will cut off a large portion of the Gulf moisture to our
south. There will still be enough of a sea breeze present for rain
chances Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, but the best chances for
any showers or thunderstorms will become increasingly confined to
our southernmost zones. Despite the uncertainty in rainfall
amounts and thunderstorm coverage, the increased moisture and
associated cloud cover should provide some relief from the heat as
daytime high temperatures should be limited to the lower 90s
Monday through Wednesday.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

For the 13/18z TAF update...No major aviation concerns for this
period. VFR conditions look to prevail throughout generally clear
skies and light and variable winds. Satellite imagery is showing
the afternoon CU field well to the west of our forecast area.
There is a non zero chance that our east Texas terminals could see
some of this CU field move overhead this afternoon, however,
confidence is very low in this happening, hence the SKC throughout
the period. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  65  94  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  66  94  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  67  95  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  63  94  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  69  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  66  94  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  68  94  71  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...33