136
FXUS64 KSHV 261547
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1047 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The early morning convection over NE TX has completely diminished
as of mid-morning, although a considerable elevated cigs remain
over SW AR/N LA, with additional elevated cigs from ongoing dying
convection over Cntrl TX continuing to spread E across Deep E TX
and N LA. This complex did leave behind a theta-e bndry
indicative of the cooler and much drier air from near and N of
the DFW Metroplex into the Mid Red River Valley, with a steep
gradient noted in the sfc theta-e fields just NW of the region. In
addition, brief wind gusts to 35-40+ kts were observed in wake of
the dying convection near and shortly after 12Z across portions
of extreme NE TX/Srn AR, with winds having diminished somewhat in
their wake. However, given the steep pressure gradient in place
ahead of a sfc low centered near PNC as of 15Z, the onset of
mixing will result in gusty SSW winds through the afternoon over
the Wrn half of the region, where a Wind Advisory is in place.

The elevated cigs are expected to continue diminishing/thinning
from W to E through the afternoon given the dying convection to
our SW, and thus, strong insolation and the warming SSw winds will
result in max temps climbing into the lower/mid 90s this
afternoon. Unfortunately, it doesn`t appear dewpoints will mix out
well again at all, with the higher dewpoints noted over lower E
TX eventually mixing back N over NE TX where some slightly drier
air was able to mix E from the early morning convection. Will not
be making any changes with the existing Heat Advisory in place,
although confidence is lower that criteria will be reached over
portions of NE TX N of I-20 than areas farther S. Have also
removed pops this morning and keeping a dry forecast through the
afternoon given the capping that should persist as well as the
lack of deep lyr moisture. However, the advance of a weak
shortwave trough noted on the morning water vapor imagery over W
and NW TX should help reinforce the dryline E this afternoon into
Ern OK and portions of NCntrl/extreme NE TX, which may be enough
to initiate isolated convection by early evening over portions of
NE TX.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A surface low across Kansas will move east northeast today
allowing for an enhanced pressure gradient across the region.
South winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph across much of northeast
Texas and adjacent areas of north Louisiana and southwest
Arkansas. Therefore, a Wind Advisory is in effect for today.
Additionally, southerly flow will maintain a moisture rich airmass
that, combined with high temperatures in the lower 90s areawide,
will allow for heat index values to approach 105 degrees across
much of the region. A Heat Advisory is now in effect for much of
the region, except for southern Arkansas, through this afternoon
and evening.

Surface low will shift east into the Great Lakes region late
tonight. A trailing cold front will linger across the I-30
corridor this afternoon. A weak shortwave disturbance translating
east within a nearly zonal upper-flow pattern will allow for
sufficient instability to ignite convection across mainly
northeast Texas, south Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma this
afternoon. Some storms may be severe with hail, damaging winds,
and isolated tornadoes possible.

Conditions forecast to improve late tonight into Monday with
temperatures ranging from highs in the low to mid 90s and
overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

An upper-level ridge centered across Mexico will maintain
northwest flow aloft across much of the region through the long-
term period. Upper-level disturbances translating southeast within
the mean flow aloft could support periods of convection each day
with the strongest convection on Tuesday night and again on Friday
into Friday night. It is not uncommon for late spring and early
summer northwest flow convection to be severe in nature,
especially if enough low-level moisture is in place to support
rapid buoyancy during peak afternoon heating. At this time, there
isn`t enough certainty to predict a widespread substantial severe
weather threat as me move through the work week, but due to the
nature of the synoptic pattern, a few severe storms may be
possible.

Temperatures through the workweek to range from highs in the mid
to upper 80s each day and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

For the 26/12 TAF update, active weather in upstream airspaces and
during the day will create multiple durations of MVFR vis/cigs
that will make up the majority of the period`s conditions. Strong
surface winds above 15 kts are expected through 26/18Z (especially
in the western airspace), while MVFR/IFR cigs are expected to
return by the end of the period. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  75  95  72 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  93  74  95  69 /   0  30   0  10
DEQ  91  67  92  63 /  10  30   0  10
TXK  94  72  94  68 /  10  20   0  10
ELD  93  71  94  66 /  10  40   0  10
TYR  93  74  94  72 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  92  74  94  72 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  93  76  96  73 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-059-070-071.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ070.

LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001-002.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16