285
FXUS64 KSHV 120724
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
224 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Made a few adjustments to rain chances and sky cover this evening
based on radar and satellite trends. Otherwise the forecast is on
track.

An area of upper level ridging will pass across the region
overnight, ahead of a closed area of low pressure slowly moving
across the Four Corners Area. Meanwhile at the surface, high
pressure will be moving east across the Lower MS Valley and TN
Valleys, opening the local area up to southerly return flow.

For the rest of the evening and overnight, an area of showers and
thunderstorms will skirt far southern zones, while a few
sprinkles and possibly some isolated lightning may pass through
northern and central zones. The lower levels remain rather dry,
per 00z SHV and LCH soundings so do not expect a lot of precip to
reach the surface. In general, expect an overall dry night, with
any shower activity resulting in minimal rainfall amounts. Lows
will drop into the low to mid 60s for most locations. Mostly
cloudy to overcast conditions will continue to plague aurora
viewing tonight, however some breaks will be possible here and
there for the next few hours. Pinpointing where best viewing
conditions will materialize and when is too tricky to discuss, as
these conditions will be transient.

Conditions still expected to deteriorate from west to east rather
quickly Sunday morning with moderate to heavy rain moving into
the area with embedded thunderstorms.

Kovacik

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Quiet weather will gradually come to an end across the Four State
Region as the weekend ends. This is due to surface ridging that
will weaken and shift eastward, re-introducing southerly winds and
a chance of precipitation into Deep East Texas. High amounts of
antecedent soil moisture will create conducive conditions for
flash flooding by tomorrow, therefore a Flood Watch has been
issued starting tomorrow morning. Otherwise, temperature maximums
and minimums will be moderated by cloud cover into the upper
70s/mid-to-upper 60s. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Active and wet weather will continue through most of next week
across the Four State Region. This is due to a quasi-zonal
synoptic pattern augmented by a series of slower troughs and
faster embedded shortwaves across northern Mexico and the Southern
Plains. The first of these disturbances will keep precipitation
going through Monday (flash flooding possible in Deep East Texas),
then a break in activity precedes the next round of activity late
Wednesday into early Friday.

Severe weather remains a possibility as troughing will be strong
enough on Monday and later next week to introduce some divergent
flow aloft that aids updrafts in any convection that develops.
That said, day 1-7 QPF values continue to trend wetter with
widespread 3-6 inch totals expected and isolated higher amounts
not out of the question (especially with rainfall expected into
next weekend). Temperature maximums/minimums will be moderated by
this activity as a result, remaining in the low-to-mid 80s/upper
60s. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

For the 05/12z TAFS...VFR conditions across all sites, with BKN to
OVC mid and high cigs. Widely scattered light rain will continue
to move across the region overnight. However, lower cigs will move
into the region after 15z today, along with widespread showers
and thunderstorms. This will result in reduced flight conditions
through the end of the period. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  84  66  84 /  80  40  20  10
MLU  65  85  66  84 /  90  60  40  10
DEQ  62  80  60  80 /  60  50  10  10
TXK  65  82  64  82 /  80  50  10  10
ELD  62  79  63  82 /  90  50  20  10
TYR  67  85  64  84 /  70  20  10   0
GGG  66  85  64  84 /  80  30  10   0
LFK  68  86  64  87 /  70  40  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday morning
     for LAZ001-002-010-011-017-018.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday morning
     for TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...20