476
FXUS64 KSHV 300548
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1248 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Isolated convection that developed across portions of Deep East
Texas continues to gradually dissipate. However, radar estimated
some rainfall amounts potentially above 2 inches, especially in
Southern Angelina County. Latest model guidance is in decent
agreement that we should be quiet for the remainder of tonight.
Ongoing convection across the High Plains is expected to remain
west of the forecast area until after daybreak Thursday. Thus,
PoPs were trimmed significantly across the area for the rest of
tonight.

The rest of the forecast appears to be on track. Updated text
products have been sent.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

MCV currently spinning across NE TX/NW LA/SW AR with only light
precipitation underneath it but more impactful convection moving
through our far southeast zones attm. Clouds are clearing rapidly
in the wake of the disturbance across NE TX and thus, we may
exceed fcst high temperatures today across our northwest half as a
result before the sunset.

Upper ridge axis has finally shifted east of the Rockies and has
emerged across the Great Plains today and that trend will slowly
continue through the end of the work week. Not seeing much in the
way of disturbances upstream that could impact our region
overnight but disturbances across the Tx Hill Country will be
moving our way during the day Thursday and its these features
that will provide the necessary forcing, which combined with
daytime heating, to product scattered to numerous convection once
again across the region. Severe weather parameters are not really
present but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm along with
locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled during the day Thursday.

Concerning temperatures, did shave temps slightly from NBM values
as they have been running just a tad warm lately and the same can
be said for daytime high temperatures assuming of course we see
the kind of storm coverage we should see on Thu.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

In the wake of the upper ridge across the Intermountain West will
be a weakly amplified upper trough. A piece of this trough is
fcst to break out into the Southern Plains late in the day Thu
and move out of the Upper Red River Valley and into our far
northwest zones late Thu Night. Convection associated with this
disturbance will have the potential to be a damaging wind
producer along with excessive heavy rainfall during the predawn
hours Friday Morning and all through the day Friday across much
of/if not all of the Four State Region. SPC`s Slight Convective
Risk for Severe Thunderstorms and WPC`s Slight Risk for Excessive
Heavy Rainfall are both highlighting our region for this
potentially big weather event. Strong upstream QPF signals are
highlighted by most deterministic model solutions but there is not
much in the way of model run to run consistency in the exactly
locations of this heavier precipitation. Thus, we will continue to
monitor these threats as the event nears.

Dirty near zonal to WNW flow aloft will continue through the
weekend and model spread is rather large with additional upstream
disturbances moving our way for the weekend. Having said this,
confidence is high enough for the inclusion of scattered to
numerous pop coverage Sat and Sun before maybe, and this is a big
maybe, we may see enough upper ridging across the Great Plains to
shunt northwest flow type convection to our east for next week.
Of course if this were to happen, we would introduce very warm to
hot conditions returning to at least the western half of our
region due to our close proximity to the upper ridge. We have to
get there first however and thus, more rain and thunderstorms are
the underlying theme of both the short term and long term portion
of this 7-day forecast unfortunately.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

For the 30/06Z TAF update, active weather continues and will
produce/maintain MVFR/IFR vis/cigs, especially by the end of the
period. Until then, the next window of MVFR or lower vis/cigs is
30/10-16Z with light southeasterly winds across the airspace. /16/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  72  81  70 /  60  30  70  50
MLU  84  68  83  67 /  60  30  70  50
DEQ  82  65  77  63 /  60  60  70  50
TXK  84  68  79  66 /  60  50  70  50
ELD  83  65  81  64 /  60  30  70  50
TYR  84  71  79  68 /  60  60  70  50
GGG  84  70  80  68 /  60  50  70  50
LFK  84  71  82  68 /  60  30  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...16