264
FXUS64 KSHV 121631 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1131 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A broad shortwave trough is moving into Louisiana and should
continue to gradually move east of the region this afternoon,
which should result in a decrease in forcing for ascent.
Convection has remained well to our southwest across Central
Texas and is moving away. Model guidance is also in good agreement
that we should remain dry for the rest of today, so PoPs were
removed. Otherwise, a few minor updates were made to the hourly
temperature and sky grids based on the latest observations.

Updated text products have been sent.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday Night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The early morning water vapor imagery indicates the center of the
open trough aloft having shifted into ECntrl TX into SW AR, with
drier air having entrained E ahead of the trough axis into N LA.
Meanwhile, the morning surface analysis still continues to depict
a gradient of theta-e bisecting the SW sections of E TX,
indicative of the drier air that has backdoored SW ahead of sfc
ridging that extends from the OH valley SW into N LA/NE TX. Aside
from a few sprinkles along the upper trough axis between SLR and
GGG as of 08Z, all is and should remain quiet today, as the
trough axis continues to sink SE through the remainder of the
region into Cntrl MS/LA and SE TX. Still can`t rule out very
isolated convection this morning over the extreme SW sections of E
TX in the area of slightly better theta-e, which will be
coincident with weak forcing with the trough axis and the weakening
H700 low responsible for the ongoing convection near and just W
of FTW/MWL.

Elevated cigs should also thin today as the trough sinks SE,
resulting in good insolation such that max temps should again near
the daily norms. Did trend temps near if not a degree warmer than
what was observed Tuesday, although drier air along the base of
the sfc ridge will keep the edge off of the humidity, allowing
temps to quickly fall this evening after sunset given the good
radiational cooling conditions expected. Upper ridging extending
from Nrn Old MX into the Four Corners Region this morning remains
progged to build E into the Srn Plains tonight and into the
Ozarks/much of the region Thursday, with the drier air deepening
as it mixes farther S in wake of the trough`s departure this
afternoon and tonight. Stronger insolation should also result in
hotter temps Thursday, with lower to mid 90s expected areawide,
although heat indices will not be much higher than the ambient air
temps given the dry air in place. If there`s any consolation to
the daytime heat will be the more comfortable evening/overnight
temps in the drier air, with readings falling into the 60s
areawide.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Hot and dry conditions will continue Friday through much of the
upcoming weekend, as the center of the ridging aloft expands E
across the Ozarks/region Friday, and into the Mid-South and Lower
MS Valley Saturday. Thus, strong subsidence beneath the ridge
will result in max temps climbing into the mid and upper 90s
areawide, with even some isolated locations across N LA/Srn AR
nearing the century mark Saturday. With the upper ridge shifting
farther E for the latter half of the weekend, a SSErly low level
flow will return on its backside with the attendant sfc ridging
shifting farther E as well, with dewpoints and associated RH`s
increasing Saturday night and Sunday. The upper ridge remains
progged to be anchored over the TN Valley and SE CONUS Sunday,
with an influx of tropical moisture associated with an inverted
trough aloft/tropical wave expected to move ashore the SE TX/S LA
coasts Sunday, enhancing the development/inland spread of
seabreeze convection into Deep E TX/NCntrl LA during the
afternoon. Have maintained slight chance/low chance pops generally
S of the I-20 corridor, with the convection diminishing during
the evening with the loss of heating.

A weakness aloft should develop over the region on the backside of
the ridge to the E, supporting a greater potential for scattered
convection over much of the region Monday, where chance pops have
been expanded areawide. Greater uncertainty remains though beyond
Monday given the increased variability of the medium range progs,
with the GFS again trending wet and cooler as it maintains the
weakness aloft longer vs. the drier ECMWF as it tries to
retrograde the ridge back W into the Ozarks/Four State Region by
midweek, and over the Srn Plains Thursday, all the while
maintaining its grip much farther E across the Mid MS Valley to
the Ern Seaboard. Some influence with the weakness aloft is
expected to persist at least through midweek, and when combined
with amply moisture and diurnal heating, should contribute to the
potential for at least isolated to widely scattered convection
over the area through the end of the extended period. This should
also help taper max temps to some extent, maintaining readings
near if not slightly above the daily norms.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

For the 12/12Z TAFs, a mix of BKN to denser high level clouds
prevail across much of ArkLaTex airspace, with isolated lower MVFR
CIGs and a few brief vis reductions possible, but no widespread
impacts expected. The redevelopment of a Cu field looks to begin
in the midmorning hours, defined by FEW/BKN CIGs in the lower VFR
range. Slight chances for thunderstorms across deep east Texas may
bring impacts to KLFK in the afternoon, but confidence is not yet
sufficient to prevail impactful conditions. Light northeast winds
will establish a more true easterly orientation throughout the
course of the day, but not increasing much above sustained speeds
in the neighborhood of 5 kts.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  88  62  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  89  63  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  90  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  88  59  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  90  68  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  90  66  93  67 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  90  68  93  67 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...26