978
FXUS64 KSHV 041746
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Rain cooled air yet again with most of the area in the mid to
upper 60s. The coolest reading is 64 in Minden and slightly drier
overnight down in Lufkin and surrounding areas warmer with low to
mid 70s. Our winds are S/SE on the surface and due S on the VAD
up to over 8kft. Then SW around the freezing level with that
persistent NW flow aloft. Our next impulse is closing in on
McCurtain County in SE OK right now. Another potent push with a
widening line of thunderstorms that will push across our I-30
corridor this early morning. The expectation then is for heating
to bolster the activity once again later this morning, and
progress on down our I-49 corridor, not clearing our Parishes
until late this afternoon, at least on the HRRR.

Which we recall ended up doing a fantastic prognostication 24 hrs
ago on lastnight`s activity. In light of the inches of rainfall
soaking our soils, we have hoisted a flood watch for today,
tonight and tomorrow. Now not every where will see the same
amounts or heavy rains for all, but we know the number of flash
flood warnings has doubled last night from Sunday nights effort.
So please keep abreast when these thunderstorm complexes approach
as "Some ,maybe Heavy" will likely apply. The models show a
deeper H500 push overnight once again and we may be dealing with
much more thunderstorm activity this time tomorrow morning.
Likewise, this activity will cool pool southeastward with time.
The last bout should come to an end during Wednesday afternoon
from NW to SE over our Four- State area. Little change on temps
expected with the deep southerly flow at least in this short term.
/24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Behind this H500 push early Wednesday, weak high pressure will
settle across the plains and begin to limit the fetch of the
breeding grounds for these complexes of thunderstorms. So we are
still expecting less coverage and intensity in the coming days.
This will mean more June sunshine and slightly warmer temps in
the lower 90s each afternoon through the weekend. Our morning
lows will tack on a few degrees with less of these rain cooled
nights. The stronger area of surface high pressure expected this
weekend will still be arriving and shifting our winds to NE for
Friday and night, and then veering to SE again early on Saturday.
However, the frontal boundary on arrival may not bring as much
additional rainfall as the nocturnal potential over the boundary
each night this weekend as the low level jet keeps the moisture
flow off the Gulf into the weekend. The deep parent low over the
Ohio valley will just sit and spin in place into mid month, the
way it looks right now. June is getting an early jump on the pace
of rain we have seen since January.

/24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

For the 04/18Z TAF update, active weather will keep MVFR vis/cigs
through most of the period across most of the airspace. Another
round of VCTS/-TSRA remains likely before the end of the period.
/16/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  89  73  93 /  20  50  20  10
MLU  72  87  72  92 /  10  60  30  10
DEQ  69  87  65  92 /  40  30  10   0
TXK  72  88  69  93 /  30  40  10  10
ELD  70  86  69  92 /  20  50  10  10
TYR  73  89  71  93 /  20  30  10   0
GGG  74  89  71  93 /  20  40  20  10
LFK  75  91  72  94 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...16