405
FXUS64 KSHV 230753
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
253 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday Night)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Very active afternoon and evening with strong to severe
thunderstorms across much of the Four State Region on Wednesday
with the key question being...will that continue today and
tonight?

Currently, the low levels are pretty worked over instability wise
but that is not stopping elevated convection across portions of
Deep East Texas, Southwest Arkansas as well as upstream across the
Upper and Middle Red River Valley of S OK. The true frontal
boundary remains stationary across NC TX into SE OK attm but a
large outflow boundary was present across Deep East Texas snaking
its way north and east into N LA with another boundary noted north
of the AR/LA border. These boundaries should washout as we go
through the day but will continue to serve as focuses for at least
isolated to scattered convection this morning until we have time
to destabilize once again this afternoon. When it comes to severe
weather possibilities this afternoon into the evening hours today,
features are a little more subtle than what was present on
Wednesday but having said that, our region remains under WSW flow
aloft and progs are hinting at a couple disturbances embedded in
this flow moving out of the Tx Hill Country and into our region
later today. Moderate to strong instability will be returning to
our region during peak heating and should provide the fuel
necessary for additional strong to severe thunderstorms once again
but maybe not quite as numerous as what we saw on Wed. Still
looks like large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be
the main threats given relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and
Deep Layer Shear values, especially if we can see any discrete
supercell thunderstorms again later in the period. The threat
should subside late tonight as the boundary layer begins to
stabilize.

Friday looks like a carbon copy of today except storm initiation
may be a little further to our west and northwest and given this
possibility, it would be mainly evening variety thunderstorm
chances we would have to deal with across mainly our west and
northwest half. Again, given ample instability, severe
thunderstorms will again be possible with large hail and damaging
wind gusts again the main threats Friday Evening.

The northern half of the Four State Region remains under a Slight
Risk for Excessive Heavy Rainfall and given the relatively high
pwats in place, much like what we saw on Wednesday, cannot rule
out flooding of low lying and flood prone areas through tonight
with much less of a threat for Friday Evening.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Much of Saturday looks pretty much uneventful precipitation wise
at least until late in the afternoon but most likely in the
evening with the ejection of shortwave energy into the Southern
Plains. Much of the forcing in association with this trough
should remain to our west and northwest but during the evening,
can`t rule out some of this activity brushing our far west and
northwest zones, mainly northwest of the I-30 Corridor. Much like
today and Friday, Saturday`s activity will be tied to peak heating
with this activity decreasing in coverage and intensity during
the overnight hours.

Kept pops out of the forecast for the most part on Sunday as the
upper levels undergo a pattern change across the CONUS. Ridging
will become anchored across the Intermountain West as a longwave
trough gets shunted eastward into the Central Plains. This trough
will have a cold front associated with it with this boundary
expected to move south and east through our CWA late in the day
Monday into Monday Night. Reintroduced small pops to coincide with
peak heating on Memorial Day, mainly across our southeast half.

Look for temps not as hot on Tue and Wed across the region even
though the upstream ridge flattens out as it emerges east of the
Intermountain West and into the Great Plains by the end of the
7-day forecast period.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The first round of convection should be east of KMLU shortly after
the start of the period. Farther to the west, scattered
thunderstorms will move east across portions of Louisiana and
East Texas south of Interstate 20. It`s unsure how long this
activity will persist as it encounters more stable air with
eastward extent. KTYR may be briefly affected early in the period.
Additionally, a wake low behind the convection will result in
gusty winds through 23/09z. Another round of strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop after 23/18z and will move
eastward across the region affecting all TAF sites before
diminishing late in the period.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  74  93  74 /  40  40  10  20
MLU  91  70  93  72 /  40  40   0  20
DEQ  85  67  90  68 /  50  70  20  40
TXK  89  71  91  71 /  40  60  20  40
ELD  88  68  91  69 /  40  60  10  30
TYR  89  72  92  73 /  40  50  20  30
GGG  90  71  92  72 /  40  40  10  30
LFK  93  74  94  74 /  40  40   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09