249
FXUS64 KSHV 260102
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
802 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

There remains a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms
across portions of far NE Texas, SE Oklahoma, SW Arkansas and
north central Louisiana this evening and into the overnight
hours. Thinking the best chance to see any activity will be across
southeast Oklahoma and maybe far NE Texas. This will be for
anything that develops across southern Oklahoma that can sustain
itself into our area. In addition, models have been inconsistent
with anything moving into our area, thus only the Marginal Risk.

Temperatures tonight will range from around 70 degrees to the mid
70s across the region under partly cloudy skies. For Sunday,
temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 90s across the
region. There are some areas across east and deep east Texas that
could see heat index values reach advisory criteria for Sunday but
we are somewhat borderline at this time so I have elected to give
it one more cycle and then we can make a decision by the overnight
package. Sunday night will remain mild with lows ranging from the
mid 60s to mid 70s.

Aside from the heat, there will be yet another chance for strong
to severe thunderstorms across portions of the area. This chance
will be for areas along and north of I-20 again with a Slight Risk
in place for areas near and north of I-30 where there will be some
unstable air in place. Isolated supercells should develop during
the afternoon hours and be capable of producing mainly strong wind
gusts along with the potential for some large hail. While the
tornado threat is lower, it cannot be completely ruled out at
this time.

/33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A strong cold front will begin to move into our northern zones by
Monday morning before gradually pushing through the rest of the
area during the day. It may be slow enough that some severe
weather could develop across our southern zones for a change by
Monday afternoon. Right now there is a Marginal Risk for strong to
severe thunderstorms across portions of deep east Texas and
central Louisiana. Will need to continue to monitor this potential
over the next few days as there remains some uncertainty.

I don`t want to say that Monday will be our last chance for severe
weather for the upcoming week, but right now it is the last day we
are outlooked by the SPC. And by Thursday, they move to a
"potential too low" statement for the entire CONUS. That being
said, we do still have daily PoPs in the forecast for most of next
week, however, thinking that most of that activity will be
diurnally driven, hence the lack of outlooks at this time. But
with us heading into the dog days of summer at a rapid rate, I am
sure we will take all the rain we can get at this time.

As for temperatures, we will see some "relief" from the heat for
next week. Granted we will still see afternoon highs in the 80s
and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s, but this is "cooler" than
the 90s we are seeing right now. In addition, maximum heat index
values should remain suppressed for the most part through the
upcoming week.

/33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

For the 26/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions largely prevail early
this evening except for some slight vsby reductions in East Texas
due to haze. Cu field should quickly diminish with the setting sun
while cirrus will persist overnight from upstream convection over
North Central Texas and Oklahoma. Stratus should return closer to
daybreak on Sunday and linger through mid to late morning before
VFR conditions return by the afternoon. Any convection should be
isolated at best through the end of the period before increasing
just beyond 27/00Z. Breezy south winds this evening will persist
overnight and increase further on Sunday with speeds of 15-20 kts
and higher gusts near 25-30 kts.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  94  75  95 /  10  20  20   0
MLU  75  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  10
DEQ  70  89  66  91 /  30  10  20   0
TXK  73  93  71  93 /  10  10  30   0
ELD  72  92  71  93 /  10  10  30  10
TYR  75  93  74  93 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  75  92  74  94 /  10  10  10   0
LFK  75  94  75  96 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...19