Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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539 FXUS64 KSHV 050846 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 346 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Warm and breezy this morning with gusty S/SE winds. On the flip side, a line of thunderstorms is shifting the sfc winds across I-30 right now back to NW with some healthy gusts. Mount Pleasant peaked at nearly 50 mph recently and we have a couple of warnings watching along that part of the line. Specials WX statements have been holding, but the rains are bringing down stronger winds as enhancements continue to unfold. Most sites are fair with mid 60s in N LA and upper 60s in S AR for the coolest ahead of the line, but the rain cooled air is dropping temps some 5 to 10 degrees. Along and south of I-20 air temps are mid to upper 70s in E TX. This last good MCS push is going to take some time to clear all of our southern tier. No changes at this time to the flood watch, but we can let it go early if the system outpaces current guidance. The GFS and ECMWF are very similar with a weak 1008mb high over E OK this afternoon. The cool pool will advance into our area, but skies should improve for a warmer afternoon north of I-20 and maybe more. The NAM is a little deeper on the H500 trough, even closing off at 577dam over Memphis later today and likewise keeping convection going south of I-20 across the remainder of our Four-State area late this afternoon and early this evening. So some highs over the south may preceed the weather, while skies have to thin for the sun later on today. Overnight looks cooler with more patchy fog areawide toward daybreak with light NW winds that will veer to N/NE and keep for a while with a larger airmass dropping down our way to wrap up the work week. Low will vary from N to S to start our Thursday and more sunshine will push the mercury higher and higher in the coming days. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The deep parent low remains in the Great Lakes and will be lobbing down lowering heights aloft for us in a decent trough again early next week. Until then, the Four-Corners upper ridge will drift eastward over TX for this weekend. It is 592dam over AZ this morning and will drift into E TX at 593dam, while the NE winds on the sfc swing back to S/SE for the weekend. A hearty warming trend for sure with heat index readings over the century mark for us all weekend. We may just be under advisory criteria. Then under that trough dropping down early next week, we will see NE sfc winds return to greet the new work week. Slightly cooler temps nestle back down the MS River Valley. This will likely drum up next significant rainfall Monday and Tuesday. That air mass will be 1015mb and keep up in the middle MS River Valley. Then a decent H500 impulses proceeds another 1018mb high for the middle of next week. So the lowering heights, added clouds and rain around will bring back mid to upper 80s for next work week. Meanwhile, the GFS shows a tropical look with an 584dam low lifting over E TX on Wednesday. In fact the entire Gulf coast gets an Easterlies look we really haven`t seen so far. So more rain then too, but at least a few days of a warm to hot respite unpacking later today and through the coming weekend. /24/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 For the 05/06Z TAF period, a line of strong convection continues to shift into our NW airspace early this morning and will begin impacting some of our terminals prior to daybreak (TXK/TYR/GGG). SHV/ELD may also see this line arrive just before 12Z with gusty winds likely along the leading edge, generally between 25-40 kts. Additionally, low stratus will result in MVFR cigs expanding over our entire airspace through the remainder of this morning as the line of strong convection shifts farther SE of the Interstate 20 corridor with LFK/MLU seeing its arrival shortly after 12Z. Cigs will gradually improve this afternoon as convection largely exits the region with VFR conditions likely returning for the latter half of the TAF period. Breezy S/SE winds between 5-15 kts will become more variable (and briefly N/NW with line of convection) later in the period with winds decoupling by 06/00Z. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 85 72 93 72 / 90 10 0 0 MLU 86 70 92 70 / 90 20 10 0 DEQ 86 62 92 67 / 50 0 0 0 TXK 85 65 92 70 / 70 0 0 0 ELD 83 66 90 68 / 80 10 0 0 TYR 86 70 92 71 / 50 0 0 0 GGG 85 69 92 71 / 60 10 0 0 LFK 89 71 94 70 / 80 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ077. TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126- 136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...19