924
FXUS01 KWBC 271958
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Valid 00Z Tue May 28 2024 - 00Z Thu May 30 2024

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Southern Plains on Tuesday and a Slight Risk over parts of the
Northeast to the Southeast with a second area over parts of the
Southern Plains on Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Monday and the Southern Plains
on Tuesday...

...There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over
southern Texas...

On Monday evening, a front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to
the Mid-Atlantic and southwestward to the Southern Plains will
move to the Eastern Seaboard and stall Tuesday morning through
evening. The boundary will create an area of showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Eastern Seaboard to near the
Central Gulf Coast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast to
the Southeast through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm
wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, near the western part of the boundary and dryline,
showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over Texas.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Tuesday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
few tornadoes. Further, there will be an added threat of severe
thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over parts of the
region.

Also, on Monday, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy
rain over parts of southeastern New York, eastern Pennsylvania,
northwestern New Jersey, and northeastern Maryland. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast through Tuesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Tuesday, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over
Texas along the western part of the boundary and dryline.
Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of
severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains from Tuesday through
Wednesday morning.  The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there will be an
added threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or
greater and hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the region.

The showers and thunderstorms will also create heavy rain from the
moisture stream northward from the Western Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains on Tuesday
through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a front will develop over parts of the interior Pacific
Northwest on Tuesday afternoon and move eastward to the Northern
High Plains to the Great Basin by Wednesday. The system will
produce showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Intermountain
Region. On Wednesday, the showers and thunderstorms will move to
the Northern Plains and expand into the Central Plains.

Furthermore, a sub-tropical upper-level high over Mexico will aid
in spawning Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over
southern Texas and into the Central Gulf Coast. The ridging will
create a dangerous early-season heat wave over south Texas,
Central Gulf Coast, and southern Florida. Record or near-record
warm overnight temperatures will provide little to no relief to
those without adequate or reliable cooling. High temperatures will
be at or near record highs, and heat index readings over 115
degrees over the regions will also be possible. Check local media
and government websites for cooling center locations and hours,
especially if you encounter or are dealing with a loss of power.
Drink plenty of water, avoid alcohol, wear lightweight clothing,
and take regular breaks indoors or in the shade.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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