326
FXUS62 KTAE 110954
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
554 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A slightly drier airmass behind a weakening frontal boundary will
make its way into the area today. This is expected to limit
afternoon thunderstorm chances to mainly the Florida big bend for
this afternoon, closer to the deeper moisture. Even there, coverage
is expected to be mainly isolated to scattered. Highs are expected
to range from around 90 across the northern counties to the mid 90s
across the Florida big bend. Overnight lows are expected to range
from the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A broad shortwave trough approaches the region from the west on
Wednesday but as it nears the area, it will generally weaken and
slow as upstream to the northwest, an upper level ridge amplifies.
At the surface, light northerly flow will be in place which
should keep the better moisture and seabreeze to our Florida
counties, but with relatively light low-level steering currents
and the presence of the upper trough, we should be able to squeeze
out a few showers and storms, especially across the southeast Big
Bend where the better low-level moisture will be.

Similar conditions are anticipated as well on Thursday but with
the ridge beginning to move closer to the forecast area, and the
presence of drier mid-level air working in from the north, it`s
possible we`ll see a reduction of rain chances for Thursday
afternoon with the best chances again being confined to the
southeast Big Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Through at least the beginning of the long term period, on Friday
and Saturday, forecasts have continued to trend drier over the
last few days. Most of this has to due with an upper level ridge
developing across the deep south. This ridge should keep the
deep tropical moisture situated well to the south of the area as
dry northerly flow in the low and mid levels develops.

This pattern potentially continues into Sunday but by the
beginning of next week, ensembles are suggesting the possibility
of the ridge transitioning to the east for a few days as the deep
tropical moisture across the southern Gulf attempts to advect
northwards again. Where this axis of moisture advects north is
still uncertain, but ensemble means suggest much of this deep
tropical moisture moving northwards across the central and western
Gulf away from our forecast area, but it`s too early to determine
if that will be the case.

With the reduction of rain chances for the upcoming weekend,
compared to earlier forecasts from last weekend, temperatures
will now likely be much hotter and in the upper 90s until
potentially better moisture early next week allows temperatures to
return back into the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with light
winds. There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this
afternoon around TLH, but the chance appears too low to include in
the TAF at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A front will struggle to get far into the Gulf this afternoon and
then will likely dissipate on Wednesday. East to southeast
breezes will develop on Thursday and slowly increase through
Saturday, as a broad area of low pressure carves out over the
southern or southwest Gulf. It`s possible cautionary or advisory
level conditions develop over the weekend, but a lot of that will
depend on how strong the pressure gradient is as this low moves
into the Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Some drier air is expected today with thunderstorm chances confined
mainly to the Florida big bend. Overall, there are minimal fire
weather concerns expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Through Saturday, concerns will be confined to short-lived runoff
issues beneath summer thunderstorms, due to intense instantaneous
rainfall rates, but widespread rainfall amounts will be low.

Next Sunday and Monday, there is potential for a swath of heavy,
flood-producing rain to spread northward off the Gulf, affecting
somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast. The heavy rain is most
likely to focus somewhere west of the Florida Panhandle, but there
is a vocal minority of guidance members painting impressive
rainfall amounts over our Florida counties. In other words, there
is a low chance for significant rainfall amounts well in excess
of flash flood guidance starting as soon as Sunday, but this will
largely depend on where the axis of deep tropical moisture sets
up.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   95  73  95  74 /  20  10  40  20
Panama City   92  75  93  75 /  10  10  30  20
Dothan        90  68  92  71 /   0   0  20  10
Albany        90  69  94  72 /   0   0  20  10
Valdosta      92  72  94  73 /  10  10  50  30
Cross City    94  73  91  71 /  40  30  60  50
Apalachicola  89  77  89  77 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Haner