334
FXUS62 KTAE 051952
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
352 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected tomorrow
into Friday as a front moves through the area. Isolated heavy rain and
severe weather is possible with this activity. Hot and dry
conditions arrives on weekend behind the front, followed by
likely wet/unsettled weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A fairly robust shortwave is forecast to push eastward across the
region late tonight into Thursday. This will cause widespread
showers and thunderstorms throughout the day Thursday, with chances
increasing from west to east throughout the morning and early
afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with the
primary hazards being damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Storm motion should be enough to prevent too much rainfall in one
area, but flooding may occur if multiple storms train over the same
areas. Due to the increased cloud cover and rainfall expected,
forecast high temperatures tomorrow are in the mid 80s to low 90s,
with lower values roughly over the northwest half of the area. Lows
tonight are forecast in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The aforementioned shortwave and attendant frontal boundary slowly
work their way eastward Thursday night into Friday with the highest
rain chances (i.e., FL Big Bend) shifting in tandem. By Friday
afternoon, only isolated convective coverage is expected thanks to
the seabreeze along the I-10 to lower I-75 corridors. Widespread low
90s are forecast this period with peak heat indices ranging from mid
90s to low 100s. Overnight lows cool from low 70s Friday morning to
mid/upper 60s (away from the coast) heading into Saturday morning.
The latter will be attributed to drier post-frontal air advecting
from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The main story this weekend will be hot conditions under mostly
sunny early-June skies. The drier air in the front`s wake should
allow for effective mixing to the surface such that daytime high
temperatures rise to the low/mid 90s with isolated locations nearing
the century mark! Given upper 50s/low 60s dew points, heat indices
won`t be much different from the thermometer on Saturday. Moisture
recovery on Sunday yields hotter/muggier weather characterized by
widespread inland mid/upper 90s for highs and heat indices a few
degrees higher. The forecast high temperature in Tallahassee is 99,
which is 1 off the daily record from 1993! Based on the current 30-
yr climate normal period (1991-2020), the average first 100-degree
day of the year is June 21st.

Wet and unsettled weather is becoming increasingly more likely next
week with the approach of another front out of the north and an
increase in tropical moisture from the south. Global models continue
to differ on the front`s forward speed, but agree on large-scale
troughing established across the Eastern US. As such, appreciable
rain chances are in the forecast through the remainder of the long-
term period. Further refinements on PoP distribution are expected as
confidence grows. Increased cloud cover and rainfall drops daytime
highs down the upper 80s/low 90s while overnight lows rebound to the
low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon at
most terminals. Patchy fog and low cigs will be possible
overnight, but confidence is too low to include at this point.
Another round of showers and storms will begin tomorrow morning
before spreading from west to east across the area through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting light south to SE winds with 2-3-ft
seas and a dominant period of 4-5 seconds this afternoon.

From CWF Synopsis...Generally favorable boating conditions
prevail outside of showers and thunderstorms through late week.
The greatest potential for maritime convection is Thursday into
Friday morning when a front passes through the waters. Light
southwest winds at or below 10 knots are forecast before briefly
turning northwesterly on Saturday in the front`s wake. The
immediate nearshore waters see a onshore wind shift each afternoon
with the seabreeze. Rain chances return next week ahead of
another front sagging from the north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow
with the arrival of a front. Widespread wetting rains are likely, in
addition to gusty winds and frequent lightning. Isolated severe
gusts are possible. Some additional convection aims to develop along
the seabreeze and/or in close proximity to the passing front. Mostly
dry, but hot weather arrives this weekend. Post-frontal northwest to
west winds develop though the afternoon seabreeze induces a
southwesterly component closer to the coast. Very high dispersions
are forecast areawide Friday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Locally heavy rainfall could materialize Thursday into Friday with
the passage of a front proving a focus for scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Temporarily dry conditions are expected
this weekend before a wet pattern likely arrives next week. Flooding
concerns may be on tap for us by then. In terms of rivers, a few in
the Suwannee basin remain in action stage, but continue on a
downward trend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  88  73  95 /   0  60  40  40
Panama City   77  85  75  90 /  20  60  30  20
Dothan        73  86  70  92 /  20  70  20  10
Albany        72  88  70  93 /  10  70  20  20
Valdosta      71  90  72  93 /  10  60  40  30
Cross City    71  90  73  93 /  10  20  50  40
Apalachicola  77  85  76  89 /  10  50  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IG3
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3