590
FXUS62 KTBW 131910
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
310 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A shortwave trough axis continues to propagate westward as tropical
moisture is pulled northward across the FL peninsula. This is in
contrast to drier air being pulled southward over the N FL
peninsula. Heavy rainfall continues across SWFL in response as
isolated to scattered diurnal convection starts to develop over
Central and N Florida.

The expectation is for heavy rainfall over SWFL to wind down for at
least a period here in the next hour or two. The atmosphere will
then need some time to recover before additional rainfall redevelops
again overnight and into tomorrow. Another round of heavy rainfall
is possible over a more confined section of SWFL. Considering how
much rain has already fallen in this same area, this necessitated
the extension of the Flood Watch through tomorrow in Charlotte and
Lee Counties. However, lower totals, sunshine, and opportunities for
water to drain have been ample across Sarasota, Manatee, Hardee, and
DeSoto counties. Thus, the current Flood Watch through this evening
looks to be good at this time. Trends will be monitored over the
next few hours.

Over the next couple days, a transition will take place as the
trough axis is replaced by an upper-level ridge. As this happens,
winds will shift from a WSW to eventually an ESE pattern, with more
typical diurnal convection settling in for at least a few days. Some
drier air could even make this convection more isolated in nature,
at least initially. Overall, though, more typical summertime
conditions return and last into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to impact SWFL terminals this
afternoon. The expectation is for a lull in activity across the
region for a few hours before storms reform towards morning.
Simultaneously, diurnal convection across central Florida is
expected to develop this afternoon/evening, albeit later than
normal. This looks to be a short-lived window before also quieting
overnight. One more day of significant thunderstorm impacts is
forecast, before a return to more typical diurnal impacts over the
weekend and into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to be
possible at nearly anytime across coastal waters, especially in
SWFL. A more typical summertime pattern sets up over the weekend and
continues into next week as winds shift from WSW to ESE. While
hazardous waves and seas will remain possible in the vicinity of
storms, light winds and seas are expected away from any storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

No concerns with ample moisture and storm coverage across the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  79  90 /  40  50  30  60
FMY  76  89  77  89 /  60  70  60  80
GIF  75  94  76  93 /  50  70  40  60
SRQ  76  92  77  91 /  30  40  50  70
BKV  71  95  73  95 /  40  40  30  60
SPG  81  92  82  91 /  30  40  40  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery