Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
199 FXUS62 KTBW 311900 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 300 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Conditions look very similiar to yesterday with it being dry and hot through the afternoon hours with some possible showers and storms mainly in Southwest. The focus of showers and storms in SW Florida is due to slight higher PWs in the area. Drier air will start to settle into the area tomorrow which will keep the majority of the forecast area dry but an isolated shower or two can`t be ruled out. Even though we will be drier a strong easterly wind will help to keep temperatures slightly cool with inland areas actually a few degrees cooler then areas along the coast. By Sunday and into next week moisture will increase and this will help to increase shower chance. Even though we might all see some kind of shower activity as we go through next week we are not expecting any widespread activity which means the drought conditions are expected to stick around. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with winds generally staying below 10 knots. Thunderstorms will be possible in the late afternoon and evening hours at our southern terminals. The rest of our sites also have a chance to see a storm but right now chances are on the lower end so kept it out of the TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Winds are expected to increase overnight out of the east which will give us some exercise caution in the Gulf. These winds will start to calm down slightly but continue to stay out of the east for our Saturday. Once again winds will pick up Saturday night into Sunday morning with exercise caution expected once again before calming down Sunday afternoon. For next week wind tend to stay light and variable each night before increasing around 10 knots out of the east in the afternoon and evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Drier air continues to stick around every afternoon through the weekend and early next week. However, we should stay above critical RH levels and expected isolated shower and thunderstorm activity each afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 94 73 93 74 / 30 20 20 10 FMY 95 71 94 73 / 40 40 30 20 GIF 95 70 91 70 / 20 10 10 0 SRQ 95 70 94 73 / 30 40 20 20 BKV 96 66 92 65 / 30 10 10 10 SPG 93 76 91 77 / 30 30 20 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis