746
FXUS64 KTSA 100255
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
955 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms had developed previously this
afternoon and evening across portions of southeastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas. As the frontal zone responsible continues
to shift south tonight, there remains a low potential for
additional showers/ isolated lightning overnight in SE OK/
W-Central AR. However, coverage and impacts should remain minimal
and have kept PoPs in the slight chance to low-end chance
category.

Otherwise, the current forecast remains on track with post-frontal
lows falling into the 50s (north) and 60s (south) as cooler and
drier air advects into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Regional surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from
north of Fort Smith and extending to north of McAlester, and this
feature also shows up well in vis satellite. Airmass along and
south of the boundary is seasonably unstable, but weak convergence
along the boundary and relatively warm mid level temps have kept
any storm development limited thus far. A mid level wave moving
southeast across Kansas may provide forcing to overcome these
limitations into this evening, and thus will see isolated to
scattered storms eventually develop in the frontal zone as it
continues to gradually push south. Weak wind fields will likely
keep the severe threat minimal, though a few downbursts are
possible. Somewhat higher probability of this ill be over west
central AR where slightly stronger mid-level flow reside. Storms
should be slow moving and as such, there will be a local threat of
heavy rainfall. Some storms could linger farther south through at
least part of tonight as the frontal zone drops farther south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A drier and more stable airmass will be with us for a couple of
days early this week, with minimal storms chances Monday. A weak
wave in northwest flow is forecast to move from western OK into
east TX Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps close enough for an
isolated storm threat across parts of eastern OK. Beyond that,
summer starts to creep back in with rising mid-level heights and
sfc winds returning from the south, equaling hotter and humid
conditions through the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Thunderstorm potential remains along the boundary stretching
across southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas, keeping a
chance for on-station thunderstorm impacts at MLC and FSM for the
first couple of hours of the TAF period. Will continue with a VCTS
mention with the area south of both terminals more likely to see
thunderstorms, but will monitor for any changes and necessary
amendments. Ongoing MVFR ceilings will continue to improve, except
at MLC with MVFR ceilings expected to develop there mid evening
and persist into tomorrow morning. Expect north to northeasterly
winds through much of tomorrow, with speeds under 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  85  61  87 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   65  86  63  86 /  40   0   0  10
MLC   65  84  62  85 /  40  10   0  10
BVO   56  84  57  86 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   57  83  58  84 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   55  80  56  82 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   61  83  61  83 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   54  81  56  83 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  82  61  83 /  10   0   0  20
HHW   67  82  63  83 /  30  20   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...43
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...22