Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
964 FXUS65 KVEF 070149 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 650 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will hold over the region through Friday, then will gradually break down this weekend as a trough approaches the West Coast. High temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal can be expected, with record high temperatures likely for some sites through Friday. Temperatures will slowly retreat over the weekend, but will remain above normal into early next week. && .UPDATE...Another hot day across the region with all of our climate sites breaking or tying record highs. These include Las Vegas, Needles, Bishop, Death Valley, Kingman, and Daggett. Along with the record high in Las Vegas, it tied for the earliest 110 degree temperature on record. The Excessive Heat Warning will remain in effect through Saturday, but we are looking for a 1-3 degree drop in temperatures Friday. We are also seeing some convection firing up across portions of the area with a few lightning strikes over northern Esmeralda Co. There were also a few showers across the southern Sierra and western Clark County where Indian Springs picked up a quick 0.04" of rain. Expect these isolated showers and storms to continue through 9pm this evening before dissipating. Along with a few showers around we can also expect areas of gusty outflow winds near any of these showers, up to 30 mph. && PREV DISCUSSION 145 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SHORT TERM...through Saturday night. Temperatures were running 4-5 degrees higher early this afternoon than they were 24 hours ago at Harry Reid Airport which puts the high on track to easily reach 111-112 degrees this afternoon and break the record of 110 degrees for June 6th. Water vapor imagery clearly showed the ridge axis centered over Utah/Arizona and increasing southerly flow aloft over California/Nevada ahead of a weak trough approaching the California Coast. The large closed low west of Baja California was also well defined and our forecast area will be influenced by these features through Saturday...leading to a gradual downward temperature trend along with increasing afternoon south-southwest breezes with sustained speeds 10-15 mph. Temperatures will peak today then lower 1-3 degrees each day Friday and Saturday as the aforementioned trough moves inland. The Baja closed low will slowly be nudged up toward Sonora and bring some high clouds across western Arizona and southern Nevada. No changes were made to the Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory across the forecast area which ends Saturday evening for the Las Vegas Valley, Death Valley, western Clark, southern Nye, and northeast Clark counties. The secondary weather concern is the potential for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the southern Sierra/White Mountains and higher terrain of central Nevada through Friday. The main hazard aside from lightning will be the potential for strong convective wind gusts. The HREF indicates a 30-50 percent chance of gusts over 35 mph for these areas...especially Friday afternoon. .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Thursday. Temperatures will decrease an additional 3-5 degrees Sunday from the influence of the trough digging over California and the former Baja low lifting across Arizona. This setup will also produce afternoon south-southwest winds sustained 10-20 mph. The digging trough is forecast to spin up into a cutoff low hugging the Southern California Coast by Monday then there is good agreement among model ensembles that it will circulate west of San Diego through Tuesday before moving slowly inland Wednesday and Thursday as it is picked up by a mean trough deepening over the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. There is not much indication that the cutoff low will pull in moisture across our forecast area, but we will have to watch it since there are often surprises with these systems.the medium range model ensembles now indicate broad trough developing over the western states the second half of the week, so tempers will likely trend downward closer to normal. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...east to northeast winds 10 knots or less will persist through around 22-23z, becoming variable at times. Winds will shift to the southwest rather quickly by 00z-01z with a few gusts up to 15 knots. Winds will remain somewhat elevated through around 04-06z before decreasing and becoming less gusty. However, the south to southwest wind direction will continue through 13-15z Friday. Otherwise a few mid and high level clouds can be expected at times. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Terminals across the Las Vegas Valley will generally follow diurnal trends with little to influence wind direction and speed aside from terrain. Winds may gust 10-15 knots late afternoon and early evening before settling below 10 knots tonight. Elsewhere, at KBIH, winds look to remain south to southeasterly through the day with a few gusts of 15-20 knots during the afternoon and evening. Winds will then shift back to the northwest late tonight into early Friday. Terminals along the Colorado River Valley, KEED and KIFP, look to maintain south to southwest winds through the period with a few gusts to 15 knots this afternoon. Otherwise winds will remain 10 knots or less. Generally dry conditions and a few mid level clouds can be expected with high level clouds gradually moving in at most terminals this evening and overnight. && .CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures and record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy of being tied or broken this week. The tables below shows the daily record high temperature and record high minimum temperature for June 6 through June 8. RECORD HIGH THU, JUNE 6 FRI, JUNE 7 SAT, JUNE 8 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 110(2010) 109(2013) 112(2013) Bishop 102(2010) 103(2013) 105(2016) Needles 114(2013) 117(2013) 118(1955) Barstow-Daggett 110(1981) 112(1985) 113(2013) Kingman 103(2013) 106(2013) 107(1955) Death Valley 121(1996) 123(1995) 123(2013) RECORD WARM THU, JUNE 6 FRI, JUNE 7 SAT, JUNE 8 LOW Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 83(2019) 86(2010) 84(2016) Bishop 64(2016) 61(2016) 64(2014) Needles 87(2006) 95(2016) 85(2013) Barstow-Daggett 82(1981) 81(2002) 77(2016) Kingman 74(1981) 74(1928) 74(1927) Death Valley 95(2019) 93(2006) 94(2022) && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Gorelow SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Adair AVIATION...Austin For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter