Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
122 FXUS65 KVEF 300239 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 738 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather are on tap for the region through the end of the week. Winds will pick up this weekend as a trough digs along the West Coast and moves through the area. && .UPDATE...Another warm and quiet evening across the forecast area. There were a few light showers in far northeast Lincoln County this afternoon, but these have since pushed into southwest Utah and should dissipate with sunset. Minimal (10% or less) rain chances exist along the Sierra Crest and our northern zones tomorrow and Friday afternoons, but otherwise dry and warm conditions continue. A weak trough pushing in on Saturday will spur breezy southwest winds, yielding elevated (potentially critical) fire weather conditions in the lower elevations of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. Heading into next week, all eyes will be on the ridge that is forecast to develop over the Western US. This should push temperatures even further above normal, and potentially introduce the first occurrences of Major HeatRisk this year to parts of the area. && .DISCUSSION...through next Wednesday. Current satellite and water vapor imagery show a trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Outside of today`s temperatures being a degree or two cooler than yesterday`s high temperatures, impacts from this system will be minimal to nonexistent for the Desert Southwest. Upper-level flow will become will become more westerly to west-northwesterly on Thursday as this trough ejects into the Northern Plains. This dry, weak, and relatively zonal flow aloft will allow for temperatures to rebound a few degrees as we head into the weekend, yielding widespread Moderate HeatRisk for the lower elevations and valleys of the Mojave Desert on Friday and Saturday. A trough will dig along the West Coast and move through the area over the weekend. This will result in gusty southwesterly winds across the region on Saturday, with slightly weaker winds lingering into Sunday. Given the hot, dry, and windy conditions forecast for Saturday, fire weather is a concern as fuels continue to cure. As a result, regional GACCs are highlighting a low-to-moderate risk for significant fire potential across the southern and western portions of our forecast area. Forecast uncertainty increases as we head into next week and are potentially faced with a low pressure system off the coast of Southern California. The strength and position of this low will play an important role in next week`s weather, specifically during the latter portion of the week. The Climate Prediction Center is highlighting a 33% to 40% chance for above normal precipitation during the 8 to 14 day period (June 5th through June 11th), which would be a result of this low aiding in the transport of moisture into our forecast area. Even with this low sitting off the coast of California, temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal for much of next week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...South-southeast components 5-7 knots will become southwest 7-10 knots around 00Z and persist overnight. North-winds around 10 knots will develop after 12Z Thursday and continue through the morning before becoming east- southeast 5-7 knots after 21Z Thursday. A clear sky will continue through Thursday morning then few-scattered clouds with bases 12-15 kft AGL will develop late in the afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...General south-southwest winds 10-15 knots can be expected across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona this afternoon and evening then decrease to less than 10 knots overnight. North winds 10-15 knots will spread down through the Owens Valley and central Nevada into southern Nevada early Thursday morning then will decrease to less than 10 knots Thursday afternoon. West winds gusting 20-25 knots will occur at KDAG this afternoon through late tonight. A clear sky will continue tonight then scattered clouds with bases around 15 kft MSL will develop over Inyo County and southern Nevada in the afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Woods DISCUSSION...Stessman AVIATION...Adair For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter