Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 272235
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
334 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A MEAGER
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY POP OFF ISOLATED HIGHER
ELEVATION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A HINT OF CIRRUS TO DRIFT SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE CLEAR. THE
MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SPRING SWING IN TEMPS AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL
GET FLATTENED OUT A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORCAL THEN REBUILD BACK ON THURSDAY INTO ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO. AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH
WILL PUSH TEMPS TO THEIR WARMEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR SO FAR. RECORDS
ARE WELL UP THERE FOR LATE APRIL BUT IT WILL BE AN GOOD 10 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO
THE MID 90S IN VEGAS AND NEAR 106 IN THE WARMER PARTS OF DEATH
VALLEY BY THURSDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY BASED ON
PROGGED TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MIXING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAK
ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MORE
SO ON THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES NORCAL. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SEE AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOP IN GREATER NUMBERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES BUT IT LOOKS JUST DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND ESSENTIALLY
STALL OVER NORCAL ON FRIDAY THANKS TO THE RIDGE SITTING OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. BY SATURDAY THE TROUGH AXIS GETS STRETCHED OUT
HOWEVER AN ELOGANTED PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EXTEND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
NEVADA. OVERALL THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THAT WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY WE COULD SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WE MAY SEE
SOMETHING GO IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE FRIDAY BUT FOR
NOW I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND JUST SHOULD AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN
THE FAVORED TIME FRAMES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
WHAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST BUT WE WERE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES WHAT A BLEND OF SOME OF THE BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE SHOWS. WE STILL MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL, HOWEVER, GIVEN THERE
MAY BE SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS OR MORE DEFINED TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY, ALL SIGNS POINT TO A SLOW DROP IN TEMPS AS HEIGHTS LOWER.
GIVEN THE VARIATION IN MODELS ON MONDAY I DID NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH
POPS BUT I DID INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE THE FAVORED HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOJAVE
DESERT IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 7-12 KTS THIS EVENING AROUND 03Z TUESDAY.
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS FAVORING A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
COMPONENT AT 4-8 KTS DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ANY GUSTS OVER 15 KTS SHOULD DECREASE FURTHER THIS
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS AT
MAINLY 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SOUTH GUSTS
OF 15-20 KTS AFTER 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH 04Z WEDNESDAY IN THE OWENS
VALLEY. A FEW CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SPOTTER REPORTS OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THEN ARE APPRECIATED.
&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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