Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 250318 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
818 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...WARM CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT IN MOST AREAS BUT CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND
30 MPH IN THE OWENS VALLEY WHERE ENHANCED UPVALLEY FLOW CONTINUES.
SATELLITE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF CLOUDS OFF THE WEST COAST BUT
CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEE NO
IMMEDIATE CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
-SALMEN-
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...334 PM PDT...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CALM...CLEAR AND WARM
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE STORY TODAY AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED RAPID DEEPENING OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED PUSH A TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN
STATES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WE WILL
SEE A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. MODELS CAME
IN A BIT STRONGER TODAY AND I ELECTED TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARNING LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT TO THE OVERNIGHT
SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS MOST
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE SIERRA CREST AND PERHAPS THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS WHERE THE ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE EXCEPT A WIND SHIFT AND
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER. ADDITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS AND GEM AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER. I KEPT
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ECMWF DUE TO THE
FLATTER RIDGE THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING BUT STILL WARMING TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS MOVE THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. HOWEVER THERE IS NOT GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HOW FAR EAST THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES. I BASICALLY WENT
WITH THE GFS WHICH IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...KEEPING THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THE
RESULT IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND
SOME SOUTHERLY BREEZES STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. &&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT EAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO A TYPICAL
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 10 KTS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER
20`S POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...OUTSIDE OF THE OWENS VALLEY WHERE WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO
AROUND 30 KTS WINDS HAVE REMAINED UNDER ABOUT 15 KTS TODAY.
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS WHERE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MECHANICAL TURBULENCE MAY DEVELOP
NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY BUT REPORTS OF STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND/OR DAMAGE WILL
BE NEEDED FROM SPOTTERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............HARRISON

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