Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 012218
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
318 PM PDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
USHER IN COOLER CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS NOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY OVER NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE UNSETTLED
SPRING WEATHER SLATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON HAS SEEN A LULL IN THE WINDS BETWEEN TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS NOW
APPROACHING THE REGION AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE...FIRST
ACROSS THE SIERRA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING UPDATE THE WIND ADVISORIES
WERE EXPANDED TO COVER MOST OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS WELL AS
CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION A RED FLAG WARNING WAS
ISSUED FOR THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY OF INYO COUNTY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLOWING DUST IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS AND
WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN BY THURSDAY MORNING AND SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. WINDS THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY AT
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15-30 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TOMORROW. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70`S FOR THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY.

BY FRIDAY ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A BIT WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A SHIFT IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING UP SEVERAL DEGREES WHICH WILL PUT
HIGH TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PICK UP BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FAVORED SPOTS GUSTING TO OVER 25 MPH.

A LARGER SCALE PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO HOP ON IN FOR EASTER AND LAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE DOMINANT RIDGE PATTERN FLIPS TO ONE
FAVORING TROUGHS MOVING BACK ON TROUGH. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH HEADS TOWARD THE COAST ON EASTER AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND DEPART ON TUESDAY. THE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND THUS DIGGING NATURE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
ONLY SHOWS AN 80 KT+ JET AT 250 MB, A FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF THE
WINDFIELDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MAKE
IT TO THE SURFACE. 700 MB WINDS OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH
AROUND 30-40 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT, SO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF CLARK COUNTY AND THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY DESERT. IN ADDITION, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
WHICH COULD ALSO IMPACT THE OWENS VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE CREST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. MODELS SHOW A
SPREAD IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND FOR NOW I WENT BETWEEN THE WARMER
ECMWF AND COOLER GFS. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK SHIFTS EAST. TEMPS SHOULD LOWER A FEW MORE DEGREES
ON MONDAY AND REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO TUESDAY AS
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.

RIDGING SHOULD START TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A SMALL BUMP UP IN TEMPS. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH
POTENTIALLY CROSSING THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO BRING RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA INTO THE OWENS VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MID
AND UPPER SLOPES ABOVE 5000 FEET. GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE OWENS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY AND
GUSTY WEATHER LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME
GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS INTO THE
WESTERN LAS VEGAS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN
SWITCH WINDS TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-18 KTS THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20`S. OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM
10-20 KTS AND GUSTS 25-30 KTS AT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON THEN
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SIERRA AND MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT
WHERE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN LAS VEGAS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN SWITCH WINDS TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THURSDAY MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 10-18 KTS
AREA WIDE.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM...STACHELSKI

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