Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 300300
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE SKY COVER TONIGHT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR
EXPANDING CIRRUS DECK EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 15. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

-OUTLER-

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO MOHAVE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WAS STILL HOLDING
AHEAD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOWED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES...BUT A MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND ANOTHER
DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT DEEPENING
THE TROUGH AND SPREADING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KILL THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
FOR MOST OF MOHAVE COUNTY EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE NORTHEAST CORNER NEAR
COLORADO CITY AND PIPE SPRING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...THE DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL USHER IN 3-5 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO WHILE A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO BE PULLED INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA LATE NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO A WEAK CLOSED LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS A
BROAD OPEN TROUGH WITH DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR
DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...JUST A COUPLE SHOWERS EAST OF THE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT YET. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS EAST OF A LINE FROM KELY TO KNXP AND 5-10KTS
STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE. STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA
COULD CREATE AREAS IF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE EAST OF THE
CREST. WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MOHAVE COUNTY. CHANCES FOR TS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...ADAIR
AVIATION...WOLCOTT

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