Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 301018
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
318 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR SO FAR IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS THREATENING RECORDS IN SOME AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...AS
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS YEAR IN AREAS SUCH AS LAS VEGAS. WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ANTICIPATED TODAY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE EXTENT OF ANY DEVELOPMENT. THESE CLOUDS LIKELY
WILL NOT BE DENSE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING...THUS LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF 2015 THUS FAR...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY.

MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A SLIGHT COOLING TREND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EJECTS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. THOUGH COOLER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL GENERALLY
RUN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS TROUGH...THUS POPS AND CLOUD
COVER WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. WIND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AS FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES COUPLED WITH DRY AIR AT ALL
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS AGREE ON DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. DIVERGENCE BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH TO AMPLIFY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS AMPLIFIES IT TO A LESSER
DEGREE...RESULTING IN WEAK TROUGHING OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN FOR SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION...DEVELOPING A CLOSED/CUTOFF
LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WHICH THEN MEANDERS OVER
NEVADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONSIDERING THAT IT IS JUNE...THIS
WOULD BE A HIGHLY UNUSUAL SITUATION. IN ADDITION...THE GFS HAS
BEEN OUTPERFORMING THE ECMWF AT LONGER TIME RANGES FOR SEVERAL
MONTHS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE LEANED ON THE GFS SOLUTION...AND
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS AND REASSESSING THE
PROBABILITY OF THE DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING AOB 10KTS UNDER
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 100F
DEGREES THIS WEEKEND AND WILL APPROACH 100F ON MONDAY BEFORE COOLING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY WITH WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AND
GENERALLY REMAINING AOB 10KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AT NEARLY ALL TAF SITES...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 15-25 KTS. STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
AT ALL TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PULLIN
LONG TERM...MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



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