Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 281621
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
821 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.  SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN WILL BECOME
CONFINED TO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING. ISOLATED DENSE FOG IS
OCCURRING NEAR HIGHWAY 395 IN WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...IN THE
MORONGO BASIN...AND NEAR KINGMAN. THIS SHOULD BE LIFTING BY 10 AM.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO THE
REGION YESTERDAY EVENING IS NOW A DISTANT MEMORY WITH ITS REMAINS UP
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ALREADY. MEANWHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER ARE ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE OUR SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY.   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY ABUNDANT AND HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF INYO
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ALSO
OBSERVED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

OUR REGION WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH SIMILAR ORIGINS KICKS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THURSDAY
MORNING THANKS TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HINDERING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM STARTS OUT THURSDAY AS A WEAK OPEN TROUGH
GENERALLY CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WE ARE GOING WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
ALL OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES AND MUCH OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY HAS A 24 HOUR POP
OF 90 FOR LAS VEGAS FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER
OFF FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
NEVADA...PUSHING THE LOW A BIT TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THAT HIGH PUSHING IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE LEADING TO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCT LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3 AND
5K WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY ABOVE
20KFT WITH OTHERWISE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED AOB 9KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 20KFT EXPECTED TODAY WITH AREAS
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z ESPECIALLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 15 AND NORTHWARD. LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

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