Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 231639
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
840 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY FROM LAKE MOHAVE TO LAKE HAVASU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
CALMER CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. &&

.UPDATE...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ELSEWHERE
THE WINDS RELAX.  A MUCH COOLER DAY IS IN STORE TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAYS HIGHS.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A WELL DEFINED COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT EARLY THIS
MORNING BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT WILL BE WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN LAKE MOHAVE AND LAKE HAVASU WITH GUSTS 30-40
MPH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE COOLER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE FELT YESTERDAY.

WINDS WILL PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY IN
FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHILE A SLOW WARMING TREND IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FORECAST REMAINS HIGH AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. AS STRONG
RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO
INVADE OUR SKY. OTHERWISE, NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT FOR
LATE NOVEMBER.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE WEST. ONE MODEL, THE
GEM ACTUALLY KEEPS RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS
SUGGEST THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAK AND KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT IF
SHORTWAVE TURNS OUT TO BE STRONGER MAY NEED TO ADD SOME POPS TO THE
SRN SIERRA CREST OR MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8-14 KTS WITH GUSTS
15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD THEN
DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY TAKE ON A MORE NORTH OR
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ON WHETHER WINDS WILL FAVOR A TYPICAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION OR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...IN ANY CASE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 10 KTS. OUTSIDE OF WINDS NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY FROM FROM
KIFP TO KHII. OUTSIDE OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...OUTLER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............PIERCE

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