Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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457 FXUS63 KGID 132019 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 319 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Severe thunderstorms are generally not expected. - Temperatures will be pleasant through Thursday with highs in the 70s. Temperatures will be warmer Friday through the weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s, with highs Saturday potentially approaching 90 degrees across most of the area. - Off and on chances for thunderstorms exist across the area through the period, with the best chances for this occurring (beyond Wednesday) being over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 An area of low pressure exists along the KS/MO border this afternoon. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms rotating around the low continue to impact mainly southeast portions of the forecast area, but these will depart as the low continues east into Missouri this afternoon and evening. Tonight and Tuesday... High pressure will briefly move over the area, even as a front begins to move into the northern and central Plains. Overnight lows tonight will be in the 40s. This evening and overnight, with light winds across the area, RAP and HRRR model guidance is showing a little bit of smoke from Canadian wildfires moving down into Nebraska...while most of this will remain over northeastern portions of the state, some of this may drift over northern and far eastern portions of our forecast area. This probably will not impact the surface too much, but you may notice some haze in those areas Tuesday. With winds becoming south to southeast Tuesday and a ridge in place, trended high temperatures toward the higher side of forecast guidance...especially west of Highway 281 where southerly winds of 15 mph or greater are favored. With that, high temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 70s to the low 80s. Tuesday night through Wednesday night... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to the forecast area late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Although overall any thunderstorms are not expected to be severe, with increasing deep layer shear and marginal instability going into Tuesday evening, cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm early on in this event (late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening)...so while there is a low chance of this occurring, we could see a sneaky storm with some hail to nearly quarter sized west of Highway 281 right along the frontal boundary...but anything approaching severe should be limited to just that. As far as rainfall amounts, even with pretty high PoPs (50-70%), QPF values remain low, around 0.25" or less in most places. Thereafter... A weak broad upper trough will be present over the central Plains Thursday and Friday, bringing low chances (< 20%) of showers and storms to the area. High temperatures will be in the 70s Thursday and in the 80s Friday. We have slightly better chances of storms in the forecast (20-35%) this weekend, but deterministic and ensemble models diverge a good bit this far out. Ensembles seem to have a better handle on temperatures Saturday, with two-thirds of the ENS and GEFS ensemble members settling on highs in the 80s across the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 There may be borderline MVFR CIGS into mid-afternoon Monday, but VFR conditions are expected from mid-afternoon Monday through the end of the TAF period. Cannot rule out some haze throughout the period, but currently do not anticipate impacts at the TAF sites so did not include this in this set of TAFs. FEW to SCT clouds from around 1400-3000 ft AGL may linger at the TAF sites through the mid-afternoon hours Monday, but clouds will slowly move off to the east/southeast later today, with clear skies returning to the area Monday evening through the end of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the northeast at 10-13 kts (cannot rule out an occasional gust to around 20 kts) Monday afternoon. After 14/00Z winds will diminish, becoming variable at 5 kts or less late Monday evening, then out of the southeast at 5-8 kts late Tuesday morning through the end of the period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Hickford