Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 191848

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1248 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Issued at 901 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Observations and calls around the area indicate that the freezing
drizzle is mainly done. There could be some patchy freezing
drizzle for a few location along Highway 81, but that should come
to an end soon. There will probably be a few flurries for a couple
hours or so, but they should come to an end as well.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The brief weekend warm spell has abruptly ended as cold air
surged south behind a cold front Sunday evening/night.
Temperatures have plummeted into the teens and 20s overnight
aboard north winds with gusts over 30 mph. Freezing drizzle
developed as expected shortly after 07Z across our central and
northern cwa and with a little mix of snow at times. Within an
hour outdoor surfaces had a thin layer of ice here NWS Hastings
and reports from several county officials confirmed similar
conditions, therefore the winter weather advisory has been
expanded westward.

Lift over the low level moisture shifts off to the east this
morning, bringing an end to our light wintry precipitation around
mid morning. Cold will be the word to describe the rest of the day
with temperatures struggling to rise. Most areas will have seen
their highs for the day at midnight, with temperatures averaging
in the 20s (or a few 30s in our southern zones) the remainder of
the day. Wind chills will be even colder in the single digits and
teens and a drastic change from the 50s and 60s we had for
temperatures on Sunday.

After a break from the light precipitation this afternoon, lift
increases again during the evening as a mid level upper trough
emerges from the Rockies onto the plains. Models are not in
complete agreement on how much precipitation we will see with
this next system. A snow band is expected to set up to our west
across western/northern Nebraska, while the better potential for
an icy wintry mix should primarily establish to our east and
south. The NAM is the most aggressive in developing light freezing
drizzle/sleet across the southeast two-thirds of our area between
03Z-09Z Tuesday and it`s hard to discount this as the NAM had a
better handle on the light freezing drizzle this morning. If
trends continue, another winter weather advisory headline may be

The Gothenburg/Lexington to Ord/Greeley areas may see some light
snow accumulations around an inch tonight, on the southern edge of
the western Nebraska snow band. Otherwise, no change in the cold
weather with night time wind chills of -15F forecast for central

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The weather dries out Tuesday/Wednesday but the cold remains with
some frigid wind chills of -5F to -15F forecast Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The arctic airmass begins to dislodge Wednesday as
the upper trough lifts out, ahead of the next one deepening in
the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft develops across the
plains and the weather becomes active again, with a couple rounds
of precipitation targeting our region the latter part of this
week and again over the weekend.

Thursday is a day to keep an eye on as models suggest the
potential for a snow band from central to northeast Nebraska or
possibly another wintry mix for portions of the area as warm air
aloft lifts north into Nebraska.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

A few flurries are expected on and off through much of the
afternoon. They should let up and visibility should improve later
this afternoon. There will be MVFR ceilings through much of the
period. Another chance for some snow or maybe a little mixed
precipitation late tonight, but timing and how much the visibility
will be reduced is a bit questionable.




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