Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
965 FXUS65 KREV 282126 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 226 PM PDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into the evening for portions of the Sierra, northeast California and western Nevada. Warm and dry weather prevails through the weekend with a more significant warm-up possible late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Latest satellite imagery reveals a couple notable cumulus fields, one across Lassen County into far N Washoe County and the other residing from Mono County into Lyon and Mineral counties. Radar observations indicate that a few showers have developed in the last couple hours or so, with our first thunderstorm of the day noted in Lassen County. These two areas will maintain a 15-25% chance of additional showers and/or an isolated thunderstorm until around 9 PM PDT this evening. All other areas will likely remain dry beneath mostly sunny skies and gusty west winds up to 35 mph in the late afternoon and evening. The synoptic regime during the latter half of the week will feature amplified eastern Pacific ridging, which will promote quiescent weather and steady warming through Friday. In fact, there is a 20-30% chance of KRNO reaching 90F on Friday, marking the first time in 2024 that this feat is achieved. Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above average over the weekend but a weak upper trough passage will put a brief cease to the warming trend. If Friday doesn`t provide the first 90F observation at KRNO, there`ll be plenty of opportunities next week as the 12Z suite of ensembles continue to advertise robust high pressure across much of the western states. Blended guidance suggests that daytime highs will become 10-15 degrees above average by midweek with consecutive days of 90+ degree heat across lower western Nevada valleys. While not of the most utmost concern, nighttime temperatures will also run above average and provide minimal relief from the daytime heat for western Nevada residents. There is still some uncertainty being a week out, but the bottom line is that confidence is increasing on the potential of heat-related health impacts late next week. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast and start brushing up on your heat safety tips! -Salas && .AVIATION... The main weather concern will be showers and isolated thunderstorms through the early evening, especially for KMMH/KHTH where there is a 15% chance of a shower and/or storm within 10 miles of the terminal until 03Z. Otherwise, breezy west winds are expected to persist into the evening with gusts of 15-20 kts for Sierra terminals and 25-30 kts for western Nevada terminals. A cold frontal passage will shift winds to N/NW late tonight into Wednesday morning. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$